Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Challenges and Strategies (2012) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Gaps in Our Understanding
2 Gaps in Our Understanding
Pages 15-26
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 15... ...
These key challenges were The Arctic sea ice cover is part of the motivated by several key science questions larger Arctic system, which in turn is part of that the committee considers crucial to the larger global system, with interactions answer in order to improve our across all components. Arctic sea ice is a key understanding and ability to predict sea ice element of these systems, influencing and on seasonal to decadal scales (Box 2.1)
|
From page 16... ...
, they atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system and the are also influenced by it (e.g., decisions to models and observations used to study and pursue commercial shipping routes and predict Arctic sea ice dynamics. offshore developments in response to a changing ice cover, long-term strategies for The recent decline in the extent of Arctic Arctic security, and development of future summer sea ice has resulted in a dramatic Arctic monitoring systems)
|
From page 17... ...
but it is also likely to be Some of the greatest changes to the more easily ridged, ruptured, and Arctic Ocean are occurring in the Chukchi transported by winds (Rampal et al., and Beaufort seas, where the increased 2009) .The delay in the formation of shore- summer ice retreat has created a fast ice as well as its reduced stability and substantially enlarged marginal ice zone overall duration are also significant changes, (Holland and Stroeve, 2011)
|
From page 18... ...
For example, mostly first-year ice will also affect the skill many sea ice models use ice dynamic and ice of statistical prediction methods. These thickness distribution treatments based on methods use statistical relationships the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment determined from past system behavior to that took place during the 1970s (e.g., predict the future state of the ice cover.
|
From page 19... ...
Ice age is determined using satellite observations to track ice parcels. Older multiyear ice tends to be thicker and thus more resistant to forcing than younger first-year ice.
|
From page 20... ...
how to communicate the The term stakeholder covers a wide limitations of modeling and forecasting to range of communities with interests in the users and policy makers; (4) how to development and application of Arctic sea maximize the utility of sea ice predictions ice prediction across seasonal to decadal containing uncertainties; and (5)
|
From page 21... ...
Many of these requirements call for incorporation of more detailed timely predictions that resolve the highly representations of sea ice dynamic varying ice characteristics that occur near components (e.g. Hopkins and Thorndike, the coastline, demanding accuracy of the 2006; Sulsky et al., 2007)
|
From page 22... ...
. statistical relationships based on past The relative benefits of these various observations may not be valid in a future approaches have not been assessed for sea Arctic dominated by thinner ice (Holland ice prediction.
|
From page 23... ...
Factors international protocol for predeployment believed to be among the most important for calibration, maintenance of measurement predicting sea ice behavior on the seasonal stability during deployment, postscale include accurate knowledge of (1) sea deployment calibration, and cross ice conditions at the start of the season calibration among different sensors and (particularly the ice thickness distribution different algorithms (e.g., different and the partitioning between seasonal and algorithms to measure ice surface multiyear ice)
|
From page 24... ...
Related to this such as ocean temperatures, salinities, and challenge is the difficulty in determining ice draft collected from seafloor moorings. which processes in a particular model are Moreover, ocean currents, the distribution responsible for unrealistic aspects of sea ice of warm and cold waters, and ocean mixing simulations, especially systematic biases are controlled, guided, or restricted by such as those responsible for the large model seafloor characteristics.
|
From page 25... ...
Relatively warm atmospheric variations, including their water masses from the Atlantic and Pacific spatial patterns, frequency of occurrence, enter the Arctic Ocean, and because they are and response to varying forcings, if they are saltier than the surface waters, reside below to accurately simulate sea ice variability on the mixed layer. The Arctic Ocean's present decadal scales.
|
From page 26... ...
layers could also change, modifying the Additionally, lateral oceanic transports amount of Atlantic and Pacific layer heat affecting, for example, the net heat flux from that affects the ice cover. Moreover, the North Atlantic into the Arctic Basin, are additional solar energy absorbed in areas also often poorly simulated in current where ice has retreated will also affect climate models.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.