Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Challenges and Strategies (2012) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 5-14
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The winter sea ice extent has roles in moderating global climate by also shown a downward, though less influencing the planetary heat budget and striking, trend. More notable than winter sea interacting with the oceanic and ice extent is the change in composition of atmospheric circulation systems as well as the winter sea ice cover, associated with the the terrestrial environment (Guemas and reduced summer sea ice.
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and sea ice- al., 2007) , the declining trends in Arctic sea dependent marine mammals continue to ice extent and multiyear ice composition are lose habitat (e.g., Thomas and Laidre, 2011)
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timescales, the role of decadal projections of pan-Arctic ice extent trends in forcing (e.g., rising concentrations and composition may serve the needs of of greenhouse gases, changes in ocean decision makers who determine mixing, increases in river discharge) is likely classification of endangered species or of to provide some predictive potential, as it planners who decide whether to build an accounts for increasingly larger fractions of ice-worthy ship, the long-range predictions the change from present sea ice conditions.
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need for this information by a variety of Some global coupled climate models are stakeholders. As noted above, coastal able to realistically simulate the past regions and the marginal ice zone are an behavior of Arctic sea ice (e.g., Jahn et al., important focus of these needs because sea 2012)
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. driven fundamentally by external forcing- Many climate models still simulate an primarily increasing concentrations of Arctic ice pack at odds with observations.
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areas of research and technology advances needed to better understand current and future changes. The committee will examine Arctic sea ice prediction, with a particular emphasis on seasonal to decadal timescales.
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. This report seeks these limitations and the challenges involved to build on these efforts, with a specific in addressing them is demonstrated by the emphasis on improved integration between many recent studies that have focused on the diverse community of stakeholders with identifying key questions and a keen interest in and significant recommendations related to Arctic sea ice requirement for improved sea ice
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to deliberately integrative approach to Arctic explore current major challenges in sea ice sea ice prediction that would require a
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Marginal ice zone -- A band of pack ice 100 to 200 km (62 to 124 mi.) wide that forms a buffer between open seas and dense interior pack ice; here, waves, swells, and eddies have strong impacts that affect the ice, creating highly variable ice conditions.
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more specific to sea ice predictions, laid out A similar sentiment was also raised in a as a function of timescale from seasonal to recent NRC report: "IPY-related predictive decadal. Chapter 3 presents possible modeling will continue to play a crucial role strategies to significantly advance our in helping commercial enterprises, understanding and predictions of Arctic sea individuals, and governments assess the ice over seasonal to decadal timescales.
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