The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate A Workshop Report (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Heimann, et al., Technical Summary in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (S.
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It is now understood that this decrease in cosmic rays is due to changes in the magnetic field geometry in the heliosphere, the bubble blown in the interstellar medium by the solar wind.6 Higher levels of solar activity lead to a decrease in the cosmic-ray flux at Earth. Cosmic rays are potentially implicated in climate change on Earth because as they penetrate Earth's atmosphere they leave behind an ionized path that could serve as a source of condensation centers that in turn affect cloudiness and Earth's albedo (reflectivity of solar radiation)
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Offsets between measurements are the result of calibration differences between instruments. Measurement continuity allows construction of a composite solar climate data record (bottom)
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New evidence now suggests that secular variations of larger amplitude may have occurred on multi-decadal to millennial timescales. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report estimated the direct radiative forcing due to changes in solar output since 1750 to be ~0.12 W m−2 (0.06 to 0.30)
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Solomon et al., Technical Summary in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment23 and the recent National Research Council report on climate choices24 agree that there is no substantive scientific evidence that solar variability is the cause of climate change in the past 50 years.25 However, the mechanisms by which solar variations can affect climate over longer timescales remain an open area of research. THIS WORKSHOP REPORT Chapter 2 of this report summarizes the workshop presentations, ordered according to broad science topics.
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