Ranking Vaccines A Prioritization Software Tool: Phase II: Prototype of a Decision-Support System (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Computational Modeling for SMART Vaccines
Appendix A: Computational Modeling for SMART Vaccines
Pages 73-84
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averted per year. Economic measures include net direct costs (savings)
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The model assumes a constant number of infants entering the population each year, with the number being given by the number of infants (i.e., TABLE A-1 Population Comparison in the SMART Vaccines Process Model Population Description Baseline The baseline population is the reference for comparison. Vaccines not yet developed and those used in SMART Vaccines 1.0 have a baseline population in which no vaccine has been used.
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The committee chose to use this simplified version of the population process in light of the constraints present in the early development phase of SMART Vaccines 1.0. The model minimizes assumptions regarding population dynamics and, consequently, reduces the burden of data entry, making it easier to use.
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Vaccine Introduced n TIx0 = 0 n TIx1 = nNEx x nTARGx n TIx1 Vaccination States Baseline0 With Vaccine1 Impact Vaccinated immune (V) V 0=0 n x n x V 1 = nTx 1 x nCOVx x nEFFx n Vx 1 Vaccinated susceptible (VS)
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The superscript 0 refers to the simulated baseline population, as opposed to the simulated population with vaccine 1. Vaccinated populations may be either in the steady state delivery approximation or in the vaccine newly introduced state.
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Health and Economic Measures Health and economic estimates are computed using the population process model comparisons as their basis (Table A-2: Impact)
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The durations due to morbidity used for workforce productivity calculations are input by the user and are identical to the time-periods used for QALYs and DALYs. However, workforce productivity loss due to death or permanent impairment is assumed to be six months.
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= (nQALYx0CP - nQALYx1CP) x nTollx x nDurationx n QALYx(Morbidity)
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= (nCMx0D – nCMx1D) x nHourlyWagex x 2000 hours x nDurationx Cost- QALYs / Net Direct Costs (Savings)
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Model Limitations and Further Work The computational model that underpins SMART Vaccines has a few limitations that would benefit from improvements in subsequent versions. First, closing the population process to migration does not allow the model to account for population dynamics that may influence health and economic measures, especially for cost-effectiveness modeled over a 100-year time horizon.
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2001. Demography: Measuring and modeling population processes.
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