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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Pages 1-6

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From page 1...
... ; engineering; agricultural sciences; biological sciences; health sciences; psychology; economics; and all other social sciences. Findings Trends it' TTD The analysis finds that~l~lD, defined as the time lapse from the year that a student receives an undergraduate degree to the year that the doctorate is completed, initially decreased in the 1960s and then rose swiftly in the 1970s and 1980s.
From page 2...
... Modeling TTD Careful review of the relevant literature reveals five distinct but related lines of inquiry that bear on the development of a model of the causes of the rise ~in- TTD. These lines of inquiry include the determinants of persistence and attrition, students' educational aspirations, the factors affecting enrollment in college, the role of expected returns and their effect on the decision to enter graduate school, and the literature on TTD.
From page 3...
... In those equations where age is statistically significant, it tends to have a large impact on RTD. In the common variables log model, for example, the coefficients of the models range from 0.9 years (health sciences)
From page 4...
... Finally, increases in salaries for those who already hold doctorates, relative to increases in the salaries of new doctorates, have the effect of reducing RTD. This phenomenon is found primarily in the unique variables model and primarily in chemistry, mathematics, biological sciences, health sciences, psychology, and economics (Note: Several ratios are constructed with different years in the denominator, and which ratio is statistically significant is field specific)
From page 5...
... Finally, lengthening TTD may, other things equal, reduce productivity by reducing the number of years spent by cohorts of newly produced degree-holders working as doctorates. Little is currently known about these possible consequences, but they are potentially serious enough to merit further attention.


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