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1 WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING TO TIME TO THE DOCTORATE?
Pages 7-24

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From page 7...
... Surprisingly, most current studies seem to overlook the phenomenon of increasing time to the doctorate occurring over the last two decades. Aggregate data on doctoral degrees show that while median time to the doctoram decreased in the limos, the decline was followed by a rather swift and steep increase through the 1970s and l980s (Figure 1~.
From page 8...
... The relationship among these four time measures is summarized in Table 1.1. Mean TTD for each of 11 science and engineering fields-chemistry; physics and astronomy ("PEAS; earth, atmospheric, and marine sciences (SEAMY; mathematical sciences, including computer and information sciences ("math"~; engineering; agricultural sciences; biological sciences ("biosciences"~; health sciences; psychology; economics; and all other social sciences ("social sciences")
From page 9...
... Mean Total Time to the Doctorate Mean ,1-1 D increased in each of the 11 fields from a low of about four months in economics to a high of nearly three years in the health sciences (see Appendix Table 2.1~. All but biosciences and agricultural sciences experienced double-digit percentage increases in 'l-1~.
From page 10...
... ~ 1967 1986 Year 0 TPGE 0 RID ~ . 4 1967 1986 Figure 2 Components of mean total years to the doctorate, by field, 1967 and 1986.
From page 11...
... 1 ~ . 1967 1986 Year Economics CKh" Social Sci.
From page 12...
... Except in health sciences, where there was an increase of approximately one year, on average, students in chemistry, P&A, EAM, and math entered graduate school less than one year after completing an undergraduate degree. Those in engineering, biosciences, agricultural sciences, psychology, economics, and social sciences spent between one and one-and-a-half years before entering graduate school.
From page 13...
... However, there was wide variability among the fields. For example, the decline was 1.5 years in economics, almost a year in health sciences, half a year in the biosciences, two-and-a-half months in math, and less than a month in psychology.
From page 14...
... Using the non-linear model dramatically improves fit in the biosciences, economics, and social sciences; and it shows small gains in R2 in math, engineering, health sciences, and psychology. The results again suggest that the time trend differs among fields.
From page 15...
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From page 16...
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From page 18...
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From page 19...
... This pattern existed in EAM, math, agricultural sciences, biosciences, health sciences, psychology, economics, and the social sciences. That AD in these fields may continue to lengthen at an increasing rate over time is a source of potential concern.
From page 20...
... ~ I ~ . 1967 1986 Figure 3 Mean total time to the doctorate, by field, 1967-1986.
From page 21...
... ~ ~e ~ 7 1 967 1986 gel TPGE ~]
From page 22...
... Chemistry1 1, 815 4 1 Physics/Astronomy11,801 6 1 Earth/AtmospherictMarine Sciences3,872 40 Mathematics/Computer Sciences13,306 85 Engineering16,415 42 Agricultural Sciences500 4 Biosciences-17,082 -28 Health Sciences5,529 63 Psychology29,936 62 Economics-1, 8 8 5 -16 Social Sciences8.751 27 Total 82,958 * Determined by dividing "estimated number of lost person-years" by the total number of new doctorates provided during this period.
From page 23...
... It should be noted, however, that these may be upper-limit estimates of the loss because many individuals pursuing the doctorate over an extended time simultaneously performed other work whose value to society cannot be determined. These figures do not take into account the effects of increases in TTD in discouraging career choice.


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