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Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s (1988) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D: Outlook for Grains and Soybeans to 2000
Pages 122-139

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From page 122...
... This ignores the differences between developing countries such as the large foreign debt of many Latin American countries, the stagnate and sometimes negative growth of many Central African countries, and the relatively more rapid growth of many Asian countries. MODEL DESCRIPTION The simulation model used in this exercise is the International Commodity Markets Division's world grain and soybeans model., The model is a global, partial-equilibrium, net-trade model of the grains and soybeans markets.
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From page 123...
... The High Demand simulation paired the high GDP growth alternative with the high population growth alternative, while the Low Demand alternative paired the low GDP growth alternative with the low population growth alternative.
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From page 124...
... 7 Policy Changes—The Common Agricultural Policy of the EEC and the US farm policy contained in the 1985 Farm Bill were assumed to remain unchanged through 2000. SIMULATION RESULTS The results of the three simulations are reported by major economic region: industrial, developing and centrally planned countries.
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From page 125...
... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 co O _ ~ `0 C~ a~ 0 1 I ~ I O | e e e e e e e e e e · e I 1 1 0 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r— t~ ~J ~ r— O ~ 1 1 —~ 1 0 1 0 ~ C~ ~ r—U~ 0\ ~ \0 ~J 0 C~J 1 1 ~ 1 ~ 1 ~— — _ ~ — _ _ _ 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1~ ~ 0 ~ U~ _ 0 u~ ~ 1 I ~ I ~ | e e e e e c · · e e e e I 1 — 1 ~ 1 1— _ _ U~ C~ O ~ 0 ~ O ~ — 1 1 1 ~ 1 0 ~ O `0 ~ ~D O ~ ~ ~ 1 1 _4 1 — 1 —~ — _ ~ ~J — — _ — 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 — 1 1 _ 0 ~ ~ ~0 ~— ~ u~ u~ _ ~ ~)
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From page 126...
... Therefore a slightly smaller incremental production increase in wheat is projected for 1985-2000 and a greater slowdown in incremental production for coarse grain production is forecast. For the developing countries, wheat, coarse grains, rice (paddy)
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From page 127...
... 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 ~ ~ ~— ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 I I ~ | · · ~ e ~ · · · · e ~ · I 1 1 1 1 Cod ~ _ _ Cod ~ 1 — _ ~ ~ A 1 1 to 1 use 1 1 1 1 61 1 O0 1 1 1 v 1 ~ 1 1 1 ~ 1 _ 1 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 eC 1 1 1 1 A)
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From page 130...
... Under the High Demand simulation, the level of wheat consumption declines while coarse grains, soybean oil and meal increase and rice consumption remains unchanged. The decline in wheat consumption in the High Demand simulation reflects a combination of lower consumption due to higher prices and low or negative income elasticities which offset the more rapid population growth under this simulation.
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From page 131...
... S ~ eC 0 ~ ~ 41 aC 1 ~ 1 ~ 1 ~ oo 3 cn oG 3 ~ so 3 C oe ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ,~ I ~ I a ·— O ~ · ~— O · ~— O ~ a ~— O ~ —e^ O I ,4 1 0 1 ~ ~ :~: ~ on ~ ~: ~ t~ ~ O ~ :~: ~ 11)
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From page 134...
... Due to slower consumption growth over the forecast period, the developing countries are expected to remain largely sel£sufficient in rice, and rice exports are not expected to undergo the rapid growth projected for wheat and coarse grains. Soybean meal net imports are projected to grow to 5.3 million tons by 1990 and then fall to 3.2 million tons by 2000.3 The industrial countries are net meal importers due to the large exports from Brazil, Argentina and other Latin American producers to the EEC, Japan and other industrial countries.
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From page 138...
... 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 ~ c~ ~— _ ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~D O 1 I | t~4 I · e e e e e e e e e e e I 1 1 1 1 1 — — — — ~ — ~ 1 1 a~ 1 U~ 1 1 1 1 1U 1 0 1 1 1 ~ 1 0\ 1 1 1 ~ 1 — 1 1 1 a: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 aC 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 ~ 1 1 1 3 1 0 1 L~ ~ '~ I O I I | e e e e 1 ~ 1 0 1 ~ ~ ~ ~D 1 I ~ t r_ I I 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 O t l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I O tl I 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 ~ C~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0\ L~ ~ 1 I I O | ~ e e e e e e e ~ e e e | 1 ~ O ~ ^= 0 ~ ~ ~ — m~ O ~ _ 1 1 ~ ~ 1 ~ O ~ ~— ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ — ~ 1 1 1 1 ~ — — ~4 — — 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ~1 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 ~ 1 — ~—~ ~ ~ C~ <1 0 0 0 ~ ~)
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From page 139...
... Unlike the developing countries, grain imports reflect stagnant production more than rapid demand growth. Over the longer term, the demand for coarse grains is projected to grow faster than wheat to satisfy the demand for livestock and poultry products.
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Key Terms

  • demand simulation
  • coarse grains
  • wheat consumption
  • low demand
  • centrally planned

  • grain production
  • rice consumption
  • coarse grain
  • exchange rates
  • million tons

  • growth alternative
  • gdp growth
  • wheat imports
  • grain consumption
  • planned countries

  • grain imports
  • soybean meal
  • population growth
  • soybean oil
  • consumer price

  • planned economies
  • industrial country
  • consumption remains
  • loan rate
  • oil consumption

  • production grew
  • price index
  • total grain
  • price floor
  • negative income


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