Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s (1988) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Workshop Statement
Appendix E: Workshop Statement
Pages 140-153
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From page 140... ...
ESTIMATION OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS: SOME BASIC ISSUES When we were developing a revised approach to estimating food aid requirements five years ago, we reviewed all of the main global studies, including ones by IFPRI, USDA and FAO, which gave projections of requirements to around 1985 or 1990. The various estimates ranged from about 11 million tons to some 35 million tons of cereals or cereal-equivaTent a year, and under one FAO hypothesis went as high as 66 million tons.
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From page 141... ...
We assumed that food aid assistance would be needed to meet shortfalls which exceeded five percent of trend in the case of low-income net importers and ten percent in the case of other developing cereal importing countries. Before proceeding to a consideration of nutrition-based estimates of requirements, would make some general remarks on the models underpinning food aid estimates.
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From page 142... ...
Moreover, the projection of the number of undernourished people to the year 2000 is based on the assumption that all countries would be able to afford to purchase commercially their net import requirements as projected to that year. We have not made any detailed analysis of this particular aspect.
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From page 143... ...
Large increases in their net import requirements of both cereals and livestock products are also projected. As regards the developing countries' main agricultural exports, the tables show a somewhat mixed pattern of projected growth rates of export availabilities compared with past growth.
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From page 144... ...
Indeed, to conclude and bearing in mind the food aid orientation of this agenda item, one important issue for exploration in the future might well be that of the relationship between food aid requirements, the reform of agricultural policies, and the liberalization of agricultural trade.
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From page 145... ...
Subsequently total projected food demand is obtained by simple multiplication of the projected per caput levels with projected population. Industrial demand for non-food uses is projected as a function of the GDP growth assumptions and/or the population projections and subsequently adjusted in the process of inspection of the results.
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From page 146... ...
: it is assumed that they will continue to be exported in amounts which will depend on the country's possibilities to increase production, a preliminary assessment of import demand on the part of all the other countries which are deficit in that commodity and an assessment of the country's possibility to have a share in total world import demand resulting from an analysis of trends and other relevant factors. Since for world balance total deficits of the importing countries must be equal to total surpluses of the exporting countries there is an element of simultaneity in the determination of the production levels of all commodities in all countries.
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From page 147... ...
If these production trends continued, net DME imports from the developing countries of some of these commodities would decline further and the DMEs could turn into net exporters. Assumptions were therefore introduced that farm protection policies in the DMEs would be adjusted to check production growth so as to enable the developing countries to continue to be net exporters.
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From page 148... ...
For this reason, the sum-total of production and net trade in the historical data is not identical to domestic demand. 2Net cereal deficits for all the developing countries including the smaller ones not covered in the group of 94 are 20 and 69 million tons for 69/71 and 83/85, respectively.
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From page 149... ...
for the livestock species considered. Final Adjustments for the commodities and countries for which the provisional production "targets" had to be lowered during the feasibility tests, the resulting import requirements would be higher than originally estimated.
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From page 150... ...
oils Exports 3,870 3,920 9,950 18,920 (oil equivalent) Imports 1,010 1,530 7,510 16,720 Net Exports 2,860 2,390 2,440 2,200 Coffee & products Exports 2,790 3,240 4,100 4,870 (beans equivalent)
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From page 151... ...
Growth Rates, Percent per annum 61-70 70-85 83/85- $ Million Percent of Total 2000 Ag. Exports Value of Exports, Average 1983/85 1.3 1.7 2.5 7,238 11.3 1.1 7.5 3.4 2,708 1.4 -3.8 0.5 4,530 0.1 6.8 4.1 9,668 15.1 4.9 13.3 5.1 6,790 -2.0 -2.4 -0.6 2,978 2.4 1.5 1.1 9,555 15.0 1.4 3.9 3.7 475 2.4 1.4 0.8 9,080 1.6 1.4 1.5 2,738 4.3 5.2 4.1 5.1 241 1.6 1.3 1.2 2,914 1.1 2.4 2.1 2,035 3.2 1.4 4.6 3.4 960 0.9 1.1 0.9 1,075 1.5 2.2 1.7 1,956 3.1 4.8 6.4 3.1 1,434 0.2 0.1 0.5 522 3.0 -2.0 0.9 2,982 4.7 3.3 4.3 2.3 1,748 2.9 -8.6 -1.4 1,224 3.5 1.4 1.8 3,184 5.0 5.4 2.9 2.4 766 3.2 1.0 1.6 2,418 4.7 0.9 1.4 1,135 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.4 115 4.9 0.9 1.4 1,020 7.2 11.3 2.8 1,638 2.6 7.1 8.8 3.9 290 7.3 11.6 2.7 902 42,129 66.0 15,526 26,603 2.1 2.2 63,884 5.7 7.4 51,151 -3.8 -7.3 12,733 151
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From page 152... ...
2Including developing countries not included in the 94 study countries. Countries listed separately had net imports of the one million tons or more in 1979/81, except for India.
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From page 153... ...
It proved impossible to draw-up complete balance sheets of feed resources and uses, including grazing land, crop residues and non-cereal concentrates. This is an area for future improvement of the study's data base and methodology.
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