Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s (1988) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix F: Food Aid Needs During the 1990s
Appendix F: Food Aid Needs During the 1990s
Pages 154-170
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From page 154... ...
However, other developments, such as changes in international economic and financial integration or developing country growth in non-agricultural exports and foreign exchange could also have an impact. Agricultural production in developing countries has trended upward about 2.9 percent a year since 1950.
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From page 155... ...
Combined with the drought effects, these policy changes will help balance world markets during the next five years, but will fall short of a degree of trade liberalization that would help sustain a balance in world markets. World Demand Forces that generate demand such as population and income growth—were weaker in 1981-86, compared with 1970-81 (Table 1~.
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From page 156... ...
Livestock feeding in the centrally planned economies is inefficient, principally because of the composition of feed rations. The average protein content is low, particularly in the USSR and Eastern Europe.
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From page 157... ...
We have seen most of the effect of the "Green Revolution" in rice and wheat, but other technologies and productivity enhancing production practices continue to emerge. The growth in crop yields has recently shown minor signs of slowing down, perhaps responding to lower world producer prices rather than the lack of technical innovations.
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From page 158... ...
Low world prices and slower demand growth will probably slow yield growth rates. Average yields for wheat and rice will likely climb at a slower pace than in the past 15 years, during which use of high-yielding varieties rapidly expanded in major producing areas.
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From page 159... ...
Developing country markets, where consumption is rising, are particularly likely to increase feed imports, as will China and newly industrialized countries in Asia. Total world trade in coarse grains is likely to increase by 2.3 million tons a year, roughly half the rate of the 1970s.
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From page 160... ...
Growth of agricultural production in the developed market economies would need to be cut to approximately 1 percent per year, half of the projected expansion in productive capacity, to balance output with domestic and export demand according to FAO (1985~. Prices Fierce competition between exporters for world markets burdened with surpluses have caused a sharp drop in world prices in the 1980s.
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From page 161... ...
Some parts of Africa and Latin America will probably become more dependent on food aid in the coming decade. Demand in Developing Countries Growing demand would brighten prospects for global agricultural exports if sustainable economic growth generated the revenues to pay for increased food imports while meeting debt payments.
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From page 162... ...
Net cereal imports climbed slightly more than 8 percent a year since 1960 (Figure 7~. During the 1980s, net cereals imports have risen about 2.5 million tons a year.
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From page 163... ...
210 200 190 180 ~—~ Production ~ ~ ~ \ / Z 160 t Yield 150 ~ , / ~ 140 _ ~ ~ / 130 _ 120 _ 110 '' 100 £ 1 960 Area 1965 1970 1975 YEAR FIGURE 5 Total Cereals: Area, Yield, Production 60 58 56 54 ~ ~2 By .
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From page 164... ...
Vegetable oil net exports declined from the 1965-75 average of 1.2 million metric tons to less than 1 million tons in the early 1980s (Figure 10~. Vegetable oil exports have risen during the last three years as Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased and are expected to continue rising in the l990s.
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From page 165... ...
The volume of agricultural imports by developing countries has risen at a 3.2-percent compound growth rate since 1967, while exports grew at only 2.1 percent. The gap widened rapidly in the late 1970s and early 1980s as rising per capita income and the availability of international credit boosted demand.
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From page 166... ...
In 1984 and 1985, 69 developing countries spent about 10 percent of their collective foreign exchange availabilities (defined as foreign exchange reserves plus export earnings minus debt service obligations) on commercial food imports; 30 countries used more than 10 percent, 8 used more than 20 percent, and 2 more than 30 percent.
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From page 167... ...
Oh Zo By o l 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 _ 0.0 1 1955 1970 Actual ,~ 'I ~1 Trend 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 YEAR FIGURE 10 Vegetable Oil Net Exports in Developing Countries 410 400 390 Oh LL a: Lo I A A ° 360 380 370 350 340 _ 330 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Trend ~ ,~ Act u,/ me' . ~ 1 1 1 1 1 YEAR FIGURE 11 Area Planted to Major Crops in Developing Countries 167
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From page 168... ...
20 15 12 co 8 ~ 4 o ~ O m fig 4 -8 -12 -16 1960 1965 1970 1975 - ` Actual \ ~ ~ 1 " Trend ~ 1980 1985 1990 1995 YEAR FIGURE 12 Real Agricultural Net Exports in Developing Countries 14 13 12 11 ad O 10 By o 9 8 7 6 _ - \ _ - ~ ~y _ ~ - W~ , _ — Trend __ Actual /\ , _ _ _ 1 975 FIGURE 13 Volume of World Food Aid Shipments 1 980 YEAR 168 1 985 1 990
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From page 169... ...
Rice AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL VOLUME = 1 1.4 MILLION TONS FIGURE 14 Composition of World Food Aid CONCLUSIONS Many of the Tong-term trends, interrupted in the 1970s and 1980s, may reemerge during the coming decade. World agricultural production will continue to rise during the next decade, but at a slower pace than in the past.
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From page 170... ...
1987. 17`c Third World Debt Crisis arid Its Resolution.
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