Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s (1988) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRI Analysis
Appendix C: Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRI Analysis
Pages 98-121
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From page 98... ...
MODEL DESCRIPTION The CARD/FAPRI agricultural trade models are dynamic, nonspatial, partial equilibrium econometric models for wheat, coarse grains (corn, barley, and oats) , sorghum and the soybean complex.
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From page 99... ...
Other Western Europe and High Income East Asian regions each consist of a net import function. Wheat demand equations are usually specified either as total demand (feed plus food)
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From page 100... ...
o In 1 1 0 ~ · l ~ ~ ~ o 3 ii cn '~ 8 ~ ,_ UJ C ~ Q cn y cn 0 cn 53 O cn ~n .t o ~i o c Ct ._ .— C Ct .
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From page 101... ...
Projected real GDP growth rate of the Pacific Basin countries is 5.5 percent in 1988 and increases to 6.0 percent in 1992. The higher economic growth rate of Pacific Basin countries is partly due to their expanding export markets.
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From page 102... ...
The projected real GDP growth rate of 2.5 percent in African countries, is the lowest compared to those of other regions in the world. This Tower growth rate would limit their purchasing power to import agricultural commodities in the world market.
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From page 103... ...
Trade for grains and soybeans increases more rapidly than production and consumption. The patterns of change in net imports and net exports indicate that demand growth continues to outpace supply growth in developing and centrally planned economies and that production growth continues to exceed demand growth in the industrial countries (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5~.
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From page 104... ...
DETAILED REGIONAL IMPI,ICATIONS In this section, we discuss the results of projecting grain production, consumption, and import requirements of four major regions from 1987/88 to 1996/97. These regions include Africa and Middle East, Latin America, Asia, and Centrally Planned Economies.
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From page 105... ...
500 450 400 O 350 ~ 300 Lit 250 to Go 10Q 50 FIGURE 2 Real U.S. Gulf Port Prices ~ \ _ ~ \ I \ I \ / \ Soybean I \ I \ \ \ \ , Wheat ~ / \ / \ \ 71/72 76/77 81/82 86/87 91/92 96/97 YEAR 0.29 _ 0.28 _ /~\ ~ ~ ~ j ~ {4 ~ {/ / my\ 0.16 _ I I I \ 0.15 _\ / I I Feed Grains \ 0.14 ~ \ / \~ / 1 J a___ __ oooo1~3o _/ 11/ 71/72 76/77 81/82 86/87 91/92 96/97 YEAR FIGURE 3 World Stocks to Use Ratio 105
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From page 106... ...
110 100 90 80 70 LU 60 50 40 30 20 10 76/77 81 /82 FIGURE 4 Net Importers: Coarse Grain Imports 110 100 90 z o By o 3 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 o FIGURE 5 Net Importers: Wheat Imports YEAR _ [//1 Developed Market CPE If// Developing ~ .
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From page 107... ...
_. 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 YEAR African and Middle Eastern countries' imports of wheat are projected to increase from 27.7 million metric tons in 1987/88 to 34.5 million metric tons in 1996/97.
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From page 108... ...
For two decades, Egypt has not been self-sufficient in food production and currently imports about half of the food requirement to meet the growing demand of its rapidly rising population of more than 50 million people. As shown in Figures 8 and 9, wheat and corn production is virtually stagnant, whereas the combined domestic use of these commodities increases from 14.0 million metric tons to 15.4 million metric tons from 1987/88 to 1996/98, resulting in an increase of 2.1 million metric tons of imports over the same period.
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From page 109... ...
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Domestic Use Production 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 YEAR FIGURE 8 Egypt Wheat 6.5 6.0 _ Oh O 5.5 E 5.o of 4.5 o 4.0 `2 c; -~ 3.0 A / Domestic Use Production _ .
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From page 110... ...
However, its imports over the next decade are projected to grow significantly, reaching 4.5 million metric tons of wheat and 4.7 million metric tons of coarse grains in 1996/97. BraziT's economic growth has increased in recent years, but foreign debt remains a major obstacle to its continued economic growth.
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From page 111... ...
8 7 7 FIGURE 11 Saudi Arabia Barley 25 23 21 by o lo in o YEAR FIGURE 12 Latin America Excluding Argentina Wheat 111 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 _ \r Domestic Use Production 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 YEAR 19 17 15 13 11 9 94/95 96/97 / —~ _ 6 `_~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 Domestic Use ~ Production _ _ _ , _ _ _ 92/93 94/95 96/97
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From page 112... ...
_ . _ 30 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 YEAR FIGURE 13 Latin America Excluding Argentina Coarse Grains 10 9 8 z o cr: At o 3 4 5 6 5 3 2 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 W l Domestic Use ~ l Production 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 FIGURE 14 Brazil Wheat 84/85 86/87 YEAR 112 88/89 90/9]
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From page 113... ...
Asia The production and domestic use of coarse grains and wheat of all Asian countries are shown in Figures 18 and 19. The coarse grain imports of this region in the last decade averaged 5 million metric tons per year, but are projected to increase to an average of 12.2 million metric tons per year over the next decade.
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From page 114... ...
The average annual imports of coarse grains by the remaining Asian countries over the last three years were nearly 2.0 million metric tons, and are projected to more than double over the next ten years. In the case of wheat, India is expected to remain approximately self-sufficient and the HIEA countries will not have difficulty paying for imports.
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From page 115... ...
This leads to increased import demand for both wheat and coarse grains in most developing regions. Some of the strong growth markets, such as High Income East Asia, can cover the increasing cost of grain imports with increasing revenues from export sales.
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From page 116... ...
240 220 oh o ~ 180 LL z 160 o 140 120 100 / / ~ 80 1 1 1 1 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 Domestic Use ~ Production _ 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 YEAR FIGURE 18 Asia Wheat 160 150 140 z ~ 130 cr ~ 120 z o c FIGURE 19 Asia Coarse Grains Domestic Use ~ / 110 100 90 80 70 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 . 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 art' , ~ Production 92/93 94/95 96/97 YEAR 116
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From page 117... ...
_,/ 1 Imports ~ I J 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 YEAR FIGURE 21 High Income East Asia Wheat 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 117
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From page 118... ...
(1988) indicated that improved rates of yield growth globally would benefit the developing regions by reducing world market prices, increasing developing country production and reducing their net imports.
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From page 119... ...
— . — FIGURE 24 Centrally Planned Economies Wheat 119
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From page 120... ...
1986. "FAPRI Trade Model for Feed Grains: Specification, Estimation, and Validation." Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa.
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From page 121... ...
1986. "FAPRI Trade Model for the Soybean Sector: Specification, Estimation and Validation.n Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa.
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