One Earth, One Future Our Changing Global Environment (1990) / Chapter Skim
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D. Letter on Global Environmental Change to President-Elect George Bush from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine
D. Letter on Global Environmental Change to President-Elect George Bush from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine
Pages 169-186
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From page 169... ...
Our views on the problem and possible responses are attached. Embedded in the diverse manifestations of this problem gIobal warming, ozone depletion, tropical deforestation, and acid deposition-are enormous challenges to science and engineering, to your Administration, and to the world community of nations.
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From page 170... ...
Therefore, efforts to enhance both energy efficiency and conservation should be strengthened; means for increasing the use of the "cleanest" fossil fuels, such as natural gas, should be considered, but In the context of appraising their finite availability; and alternative non-fossil fuel energy sources, such as nuclear reactors and solar energy, need to be reappraised with more emphasis put on their use in a safe and publicly acceptable manner.
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From page 171... ...
Improved predictions of the future course of the global environment require new and innovative approaches to studying the earth and its environment. A substantial investment in research and ground- and space-based monitoring activities is needed.
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From page 172... ...
Thus, an early decision was made to develop a paper on global environmental change, along with papers on presidential science advising, the AIDS problem, and national space policy. Topical outlines of the principal scientific problems and elements of the current scientific consensus were prepared with the aid of the staff and members of various National Research Counci!
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From page 173... ...
DeFries of the staff of the NRC Committee on Global Change and by Norman Metzger of the NRC Executive Office. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; and Sir Crispin Tickell, United Kingdom Ambassador to the United Nations.
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From page 174... ...
massive ozone depletion over the Antarctic and lesser decreases over the rest of the globe, both attributed to emissions of chiorofluorocarbons; · large-scale destruction of tropical forests for timber, fuel, conversion to agriculture, and economic development, with consequent additions to the "greenhouse" effect and losses in plant and animal species; damaged lakes in New England, Canada, and Scandinavia associated with acid deposition from fossil fuel combustion. Although the full long-term implications of these changes are as yet unclear, there is a growing perception that the future welfare of human society is to an unknown degree at risk.
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From page 175... ...
These actions, which can only be set in motion by presidential leadership, are discussed below, followed by synopses of the current scientific understancting of the components of global environmental change of current concern.
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From page 176... ...
Put another way, we cannot buy absolute security against environmental risk, however much we are willing to pay; but we may be able to reduce environmental damage and risk markedly by prudent policy actions outlined below. Energy Policy Production of energy from fossil fuels is the root of several of the agents of global environmental change, notably climatic change and acid deposition.
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From page 177... ...
Policies to Reduce I:ndustriaZ Emissions The Montreal Protocol to limit emissions of CFCs, signed in the fall of 1987 by 31 nations including the United States is an unprecedented example of international cooperation to prevent global environmental deterioration. The provisions of the Montreal Protocol comb be called on to urge deeper cuts in the production of CFCs, to accelerate the timetable for their reduction, and to urge aZZ countries to sign and enforce the Protocol.
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From page 178... ...
We believe that the sources of acid cleposition, the technology to limit emissions, and the associated costs and political risks are now sufficiently understood that further deferral in favor of more analysis is unwarranted. Development Policy The future course of a number of the global environmental issues discussed above will be strongly influenced by the manner in which the economies of the less developed nations evolve over the next several decades.
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From page 179... ...
It will be in the interests of all to assist the poorer nations in reducing their vulnerability to environmental change by developing an effective range of adaptations. Improving Understanding of Global Environmental Change We still lack sufficient scientific understanding to predict confidently the detailed evolution of global and regional change in the environment.
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From page 180... ...
The issue of global environmental change must have a prominent place on the scientific, political, and foreign policy agendas of the United States. PRINCIPAL SCIENTIFIC ISSUES The policy recommendations suggested above are shaped by our current understanding of the various aspects of global environmental change, particularly by the considerable uncertainties in our knowledge.
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From page 181... ...
This increase can be explained by the burning of vast quantities of fossil fuels, the massive conversion of carbon-rich forests to farmland and pasture, and the absorption of about half of the emitted carbon dioxide in the ocean Today, fossil fuel use injects about 5 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year, and deforestation adds at least ~ billion tons more. As a result, carbon dioxide concentrations are continuing to increase at about 0.4 percent per year.
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From page 182... ...
Recent observations of increased temperatures are consistent with predicted changes, but we clo not yet know if they actually confirm that greenhouse warming is indeed in progress. Inclividual disastrous climatic events, such as a dry summer or a vigorous hurricane season, cannot be attributed to greenhouse warming.
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From page 183... ...
Tropical Deforestation Tropical forests are being rapidly destroyed because of the pressure of growing local populations for agricultural lanct and fuel wood supplies, and the strong world markets for tropical hardwoods and animal products from tropical pastures. Satellite data provide reasonably reliable estimates of the rates of deforestation; if these rates continue, the planet will be virtually denuded of tropical forests early in the next century.
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From page 184... ...
This relationship between surface release of CFCs and global stratospheric ozone loss was identified in 1974. The discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole" the abnormal depletion of ozone over the entire Antarctic continent in the early Southern Hemisphere spring-was brought to world attention in 1985.
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From page 185... ...
The linkage between fossil fuel combustion and acidification has been demonstrated. Acid deposition may be considered as one aspect of a changing "global chemical climate," with many varied and interTinked effects.
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From page 186... ...
As a final comment, we believe that global environmental change may well be the most pressing international issue of the next century. The United States is well positioned to play a leadership role in coping with and gaining an international consensus on this difficult issue.
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