Energy Production, Consumption, and Consequences (1990) / Chapter Skim
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4. Implications for Strategy
4. Implications for Strategy
Pages 203-278
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4 Implications for Strategy
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A good deal has been said about many of these collisions: global warming, acid rain, the varied impacts of nuclear energy, and so on. It may seem as though the energy necessary for the sustenance of humanity cannot be produced without wrecking the environment necessary for human survival, but this is an illusion based on shortsightedness and on the failure of some of our political and economic institutions to respond to the wrongheaded.
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Its central finding is that the continued prosperity of the developed world depends on the rapid extension of prosperity to the less developed nations in an environmentally responsible manner and that, therefore, economic development and environmental protection are complementary rather than opposing goals, two sides of the same coin. The World Commission has proposed the concept of sustainable development as the new model for economic growth, a model that requires efforts to increase prosperity without the destruction of the environment on which all prosperity ultimately depends.
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Direct effects include global warming associated with the carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels, as well as urban industrial air pollution and acidification of the environment from the same cause. They also include the various risks accidents, waste disposal, and proliferation—attendant on the expansion of nuclear energy.
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The dismaying part results from the current orientation of our environmental protection efforts. In fairness, this orientation arises out of the history of these efforts, a history that might be called "pollute and cure." That is, environmentalism began in this country, as it did in all the industrially developed nations, as a response to widespread pollution.
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Very little of that previous resource is left over for dealing with the immense transboundary and global environmental issues that concerned the World Commission, and ought to concern us now. A slow, legalistic, and extremely expensive system has been created which is at heart an adversarial system.
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Conventional accounting works against conservation measures when energy is cheap, although paradoxically it is in such periods that more resources are available to make conservation investments against the inevitable day when the price of energy goes up again. From the viewpoint of public policy, there should be no subsidies for fossil fuel use when prices are this low: that means both the familiar direct subsidies and the more subtle environmental subsidies paid via health, property, or environmental damage.
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On the global impacts of fossil fuels, including greenhouse effects and acidification, the commission recommends a four-part strategy that combines improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena, increased research to improve knowledge about the origins and effects of these phenomena, development of international agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gases, and adoption of international strategies for minimizing damage from the coming changes in climate and sea level. On the nuclear front, the World Commission recognized that at present, different nations have different views about the necessity and safety of nuclear power.
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In the United States, for example, responsible and wise action on acid rain has been thwarted by, among other things, the insistence that ratepayers of midwestern utilities bear the entire cost of remedial action. In fact, acid rain is, at the very least, a national problem and it requires a national response.
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Although scientists do not yet know how much of the current climatic change is natural and how much is due to human activity, there is no question that the burning of fossil fuels is the dominant mode of human CO2 production. There is also no question that a large, rapid climatic change is likely to have a substantial impact on the environment and society.
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the climatic change from the greenhouse effect. The latter two are actually very old issues.
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Thus, if there is an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases, there is an increase in the planet's average surface temperature, because more heat is trapped (see Figure 3~. What is controversial about the greenhouse effect is exactly how much the earth's surface temperature will rise because of an increase in the concentration of a greenhouse gas such as CO2.
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/' /' I Precipitable Composition'/ Temperature ~ I / | Latent Heat Flux ~ ~ f ~ Water Vapor Surface Vapor Gradient / / '\ / Soil Moisture ~ Per Square Unit / / / \Evaporation ~ Relative Humidity / / ~: _ Pressure Gradient / / Vertical Wind A=_ Horizontal wing Surface Roughness \ Sensible Heat + ~ / Potential Energy Flux / \ ~ Latitude ~ I ' Current - ~1 Ocean Flux I ~ Mixing Depth FIGURE 2 Schematic representation of selected important physical processes that affect weather and climate. The interactions indicated by the arrows illustrate several climatic feedback mechanisms.
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Natural Climatic Change The historical record indicates that the earth's climate has changed and affected ecosystems significantly over geologic time. Figure 4 gives an example of how large, natural, climatic change affects natural ecosystems.
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. For comparison, the world average surface temperature during the ice age of 18,000 years ago was about 3-5°C colder than our present climate.
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Rather than focus on the global average temperature, we need to study the regional distribution of evolving patterns of climatic change. Will it be drier in Iowa in 2010, hotter in India, wetter in Africa, more humid in New York, or flooded in Venice?
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. The principal climate model issues involve the crude treatment of hydrological, biological, and other feedback processes in climatic models, and the neglect of the effects of the deep oceans.
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Should these rates occur and ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium result, regional forecasts like that of Figure 5 are not very credible. To forecast the global climate under these circumstances, the climate models must realistically include the ocean-atmosphere coupling driven by realistic time evolving scenarios of greenhouse gas increase.
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Using records of fuel use, the fraction of CO2 contributed by burning fossil fuels can be determined. This fraction has become dominant since World War II.
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There is major concern among ecologists that, given the present rate of tropical forest destruction through overdevelopment, the world is losing irreplaceable biological resources. The connection between climatic change and this already formidable environmental problem of development and land use becomes clear when one recognizes that substantial future changes to tropical rainfall have been suggested by climate models.
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In essence, the issue of greenhouse gas-induced environmental changes is one of "redistributive justice" (Schneider, 1989~. Risk Assessment For society to grapple with the environmental consequences of climatic change, a necessary step is to compare various energy options in terms of their climatic risks as well as other collateral social and economic effects.
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is, simply, adaptation society should adjust to environmental changes, recognizing that attempts to mitigate or prevent the changes may be prohibitively costly or difficult to implement. We could adapt to climatic change, for example, by planting alternative crop strains that would be more suited to a wide range of plausible climatic futures.
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The most obvious is to generate, distribute, and use energy as efficiently and cleanly as possible. Energy efficiency is a tie-in strategy because climatic change is only one of several good reasons to consider a policy of energy efficiency.
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HELM AND STEPHEN H SCHNEIDER even if present estimates of the severity of the greenhouse effect are not met.
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Because it is certain that reduced emissions from fossil fuels—especially coal will reduce acid rain and the negative health effects of air pollution in crowded areas, we see that another tie-in strategy is to emphasize the use of hydrogen-rich fuels. Specifically, encourage the use of methane and emphatically discourage the use of coal.
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Of course, any system for hydrogen production, distribution, and use must be evaluated in terms of its net greenhouse gas cost. The technology of genetically engineered crop strains is quite new.
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207-270) in The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems, B
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1987b. Future climatic change and energy system planning: Are risk assessment methods applicable?
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This chapter focuses on several of the more significant forces that promise to reshape the nation's electric power supply systems over the next several decades, beginning with demand. DEMAND Any forecast of electricity growth on a global scale to the year 2060 is a courageous and useful attempt to put the issues into perspective.
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electric power systems to experience new records for peak demands and output. Is it reasonable to expect any less of the developing nations?
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Portions of this system will continue to be heavily loaded by energy transfers, both within and among regions, as utilities strive to minimize the cost of electricity. In some areas, concentrations of nonutility power generation will further increase loadings on already heavily used segments of the grid.
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Deregulation has implications for both the price and the reliability of electric service. After deregulation of the telecommunications, airline, trucking, and natural gas industries, interest in more competition in the electric utility industry has grown.
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ACHIEVING CONTINUING ELECTRIFICATION 243 intensive use of existing transmission corridors, according to the North American Electric Reliability Council. A recently released statement by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
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Computer simulation is used widely for system planning, engineering, and operator training. In the future, artificial intelligence techniques may soon provide expert guidance for system operators, and robots will be used increasingly for maintenance tasks in hostile environments.
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ACHIEVING CONTINUING ELECTRIFICATION 245 both active and reactive power flows through utility networks. Thyristors may eventually replace mechanical circuit breakers on utility distribution power lines.
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First alerted by Scandinavian reports of "acid rain" damage due to air pollution from Western and Central Europe (Russell and Landsberg, 1971) , the Cooperative Program for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP)
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Figures 3 and 4 display the mean annual concentration of sulfate (SOT, corrected for sea salt) and nitrate (NOT )
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:~: ~::~ it:: - ~ \ PETER H
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Although international efforts to cope with long-range air pollution were at first confined to Western Europe—primarily the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris (Eliassen, 1978) , but also the Council of Europe in Strasbourg and the European Economic Community in Brussels (Adinolfi, 1968; Ercman, 1986; Smeets, 1982)
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~ _._ ~ og -if ~1~ 'I :._ , ~~ a. ;' FIGURE 4 Mean annual concentration of nitrate in precipitation in Europe, 1985 (milligrams N per liter)
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2........................'.,.' :: ~ #:::: ::: ::: ::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::: ::::: ::::: :::::::: :::: :::::: ::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::: ::: :::: ,...................~........................................................................................................................................................................................................ FIGURE 5 Mean annual precipitation acidity in Europe, 1985 (pH values)
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Moreover, it provides the legal framework for several joint programs and specific agreements (Sand, 1987; 1bllan, 1985~: 1. A comprehensive review of national strategies and policies for air pollution abatement is undertaken every four years to ascertain the extent to which the objectives of the convention have been met.
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after reaching a compromise in Brussels on June 17, 1988, that grants exemptions to certain member countries such as Ireland, Spain, and the United Kingdom— agreed to accelerate the schedule for reducing sulfur emissions (European Economic Community, 1988~. The agreement calls for reductions of 40 percent by 1993 (UK 20 percent)
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Moreover, this trend is expected to continue in the 1990s despite rising energy demands. Figure 8 is a first attempt at correlating these recent figures with long-term assessments of energy consumption and SO2 emission trends in Europe (Dovland and Semb, 1980; Eliassen et al., 1988; Field, 1976)
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It should also be kept in mind that at least part of the emission reductions can be attributed to fuel switches from coal and oil to increased use of nuclear energy and natural gas for power production, for example, in France and several East European countries. Nevertheless, the rising impact of investments and improvements in emission control technology can also be documented, for example, in the review of national implementation of the Convention up to 1986 (UN/ECE, 1987a)
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0 500 ALL r /~\~ 'it / / f ~1 ~ ran 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 50 40 o con ._ a) 30 E ._ G z 20 ° In In UJ llJ c, o FIGURE 8 Gross energy consumption of solid and liquid fossil fuels (million metric tons of coal equivalent)
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federal standards (Assarsson, 1986; Walsh, 1988) , specifications applicable in the 12 member states of the European Economic Community are roughly comparable to U.S.
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Although international standard-setting for environmental purposes is a well-established practice (Contini and Sand, 1972; Sand, 1980) , the "critical loads" concept is comparatively new in air pollution control (Ekman, 1986; Nilsson, 1986~.
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Pp. 181-198 in 1tansboundary Air Pollution: International Legal Aspects of the Cooperation of States, C Flintelman, B
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Pp. 131-140 in 1tansbounda~y Air Pollution: International Legal Aspects of the Cooperation of States, C
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United Nations Document ECE/EB.AIR/22. Reprinted in International Legal Materials 28~1989~:214.
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United Nations Document ECE/EB.AIR/12. Reprinted in International Legal Materials 27~1988~:707.
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1983. Acid Rain in Europe and North America: National Responses to an International Problem.
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Efficiency' Machiavelli' and Buddah ROBERT MALPAS A few years ago, in Japan, I came across the works of Buddha and found the following: There are two kinds of worldly passions that defile and cover over the purity of Buddha-nature. The first is the passion for analysis and discussion by which people become confused in judgment....
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The purpose of this discussion is to urge the engineering profession to make the drive for greater energy efficiency a powerful global force. I speak as an engineer who works for an oil company.
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Let us review these forces briefly. On the supply side, while accounting for less than half of the total energy demand, crude oil still dominates the energy scene.
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Of course, we applaud these achievements and call for more; but they do undermine efforts toward higher energy efficiency. The public concludes that technology will come to its rescue on every issue.
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It is intense—much more so than fossil fuels and very easy to control, measure, and program. Its growth strongly favors greater energy efficiency.
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Then, to reduce increasing U.S. dependence on crude oil imports, we need to stimulate more indigenous exploration and development of known reserves.
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Environmental fears and the concern for the world ecosystem are global forces that can be harnessed to encourage energy efficiency. The most effective way of reducing atmospheric pollution both in power generation and in transportation the main culprits is to become more efficient at both.
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~.~.~-~-~;;~ ~~;~ ~-~-~.~-~.~-~ ~~'~.~.~; ~.~.~ :~: ~~.~ i: ~~ i.: :~ ~~ . ; ~~ ~~.~:~ ~~ ~~ Coal Coal Oil Gas Gas 0.5% 3% 2% 0% Combined Sulfur Sulfur Sulfur Sulfur Cycle GENERATION METHOD FIGURE 5 Sulfur oxide (SO=)
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But far more could be done, given the proper incentives, by harnessing existing technology as we develop future technologies (Figure 7~. If the current pace of demand continues and the current rate of improvement in energy efficiency is assured by the year 2020, more than twice as much total energy will be required as is used today.
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How can we reach the other, much more acceptable scenario—of achieving the same world economic growth over the next 30 years for not much more than current total energy consumption? This will only occur if greater prominence is given to energy demand issues and policies, and if engineers provide the lead.
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First of all, the drive for greater energy efficiency should be at the top of all our agendas, and should remain there for the next decade. This is not the case today.
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It is the ultimate answer to fears of the greenhouse effect, acid rain, and other forms of pollution. One is surprised that environmentalists do not promote it, demanding that it be made safer than it already is.
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Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute.
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