Responding to Capability Surprise A Strategy for U.S. Naval Forces (2013) / Chapter Skim
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4 Prioritization, Option Development, and Decision Formulation
4 Prioritization, Option Development, and Decision Formulation
Pages 61-69
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From page 61... ...
This spectrum of options should encompass materiel and nonmateriel solutions within the naval forces as well as solutions that could be provided by joint action with other services. Understanding the Surprise Challenge and Its Potential Impact Conceptualizing a possible solution must start with fully understanding the problem.
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From page 62... ...
The level of detail in both the questions and the metrics will grow as candidate options pass through the screening process shown in the figure and will become more mature, but they must have been thought about and must exist at some level, even at the outset. The Conceptualization of Possible Options to Deal with a Given Surprise Based on the investigation above regarding why there are potential consequences to what the adversary is doing, what those consequences are, what it is exploiting, and the actions it is taking to carry out its exploitation (and, inherent in that, what its exploitation vulnerabilities are)
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From page 63... ...
, but one could force an option to be very high performance at the expense of cost and time. Minimum complexity, minimum ship fit issues, minimum schedule, and minimum risk are exemplars of other flavors that could be used to force the initial conceptualization to be broader than it might otherwise be.
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From page 64... ...
Equally important to the differences in the attributes themselves is the fact that depending on the nature of a given surprise, the relative importance of each attribute will vary. In screening out options that are less desirable than others and ensuring that the better ones survive for further scrutiny and development, it is critical that a value structure be defined that, for a given adversary surprise, captures those solution attributes that are important and assigns a relative weighting to each.
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From page 65... ...
Nevertheless, however high level and however subjective the criteria for this initial screening, they need to track in some fashion the attributes described above, perhaps focusing at this stage on effectiveness, cost, time, and feasibility. In order to effectively use high-level measures to screen out less attractive options and to resist the ever-present temptation to take just one more look, the recommended surprise mitigation office needs to be populated with at least a few very good and very experienced operations analysis personnel who understand the Navy, understand the systems and technology, think at a systems level, and are comfortable with back-of-the-envelope analysis and judgment when it is called for and more detailed modeling and simulation (M&S)
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From page 66... ...
Other questions related to field operation of a system may also remain unanswered, such as, Can an element be set up and become operational at the desired performance level within some stressing time line? Will it interfere with (or be interfered with by)
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From page 67... ...
If an option calls for a fundamental change in the standard TTPs associated with a mission, then the impact of that change on doctrine, training, or the conduct of other related missions needs to be considered. There may also be something associated with a system concept that, while not required, would enable a change in TTPs that provides additional warfighting leverage.
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From page 68... ...
It is this kind of questioning, answering, and then resynthesizing that should be spurred by looking at the quantitative MOEs to come up with the best informed basis for the final recommendation. Develop Transition Decision Package The final step in the synthesis and evaluation process is to develop a draft briefing package and written report containing at a minimum the background on the problem being addressed, the alternative solutions that were examined, the evaluation process to which they were subjected, the value structure that was used to weigh the various criteria or MOEs, the rank ordering of the alternatives that resulted, and the recommendation for transitioning the concept for further devel
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From page 69... ...
Finding and Recommendation Finding 4: With the recent establishment of the Strategic Capabilities Office within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Tech nology, and Logistics (USD AT&L) , there appears to be an opportunity for a surprise mitigation office to provide naval force component solutions to surprises facing the entire Joint Force.
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