Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices PDF Booklet (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Part II
Part II
Pages 20-29
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From page 20... ...
risks to human societies and things people care about, including water resources, coastlines, infrastructure, human health, food security, and land and ocean ecosystems.
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Assessment Report. Projected temperature change for three emissions scenarios Models project global mean temperature change during the 21st century for different scenarios of future emissions -- high (red)
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. The local warmings at each point As average temperatures continue to rise, the on the map are first divided by the correspond- number of days with a heat index above 100°F FIGURE 20 Projected warming for three emissions scenarios Models project the geographical pattern of annual average surface air temperature changes at three future time periods (relative to the average temperatures for the period 19611990)
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From page 23... ...
Heat waves also are expected to last longer as the average global temperature increases. It follows that as global temperatures rise, the risk of heat-related illness and deaths also should rise.
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A decrease in a statistically significant increase in the intensity of runoff of 5-10% per degree of warming is expected heavy rainstorms. Computer models indicate that in some river basins, including the Arkansas and the this trend will continue as Earth warms, even in Rio Grande (Figure 23)
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From page 25... ...
This figure shows the percent increase in burned areas in the West for a 1°C increase in global average temperatures relative to the median area burned during 1950-2003. For example, fire damage in the northern Rocky Mountain forests, marked by region B, is expected to more than double annually for each 1°C (1.8°F)
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From page 26... ...
Still, Antarctic sea ice may decrease less rapidly than and duration. Models indicate Arctic ice, in part because the that seasonally ice-free condi- Southern Ocean stores heat tions in the Arctic Ocean are at greater depths than the likely to occur before the end Arctic Ocean, where the of this century and suggest heat can't melt ice as easily.
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From page 27... ...
Up where reductions in sea ice and melting permafrost to 4 million people could be permanently displaced, allow waves to batter and erode the shoreline. and erosion could claim more than 250,000 square Coastal erosion effects at 1.0 meter of sea-level kilometers of wetland and dryland (98,000 square rise would be much greater, threatening many miles, an area the size of Oregon)
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From page 28... ...
Satellite data show that warm surface waters are mixing less with cooler, deeper waters, separating near-surface marine life from the nutrients below and ultimately reducing the amount of phytoplankton, which forms the base of the ocean food web (Figure 27)
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From page 29... ...
of global warming were to be to benefit crop and pasture lands in middle to high reached, most regions of the world would latitudes but decrease yield in seasonally dry and experience yield losses, and global grain prices low-latitude areas. In California, where half the would potentially double nation's fruit and vegetable crops are grown, climate Growers in prosperous areas may be able to adapt change is projected to decrease yields of almonds, to these threats, for example by varying the crops walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by up to 40 which they grow and the times at which they are percent by 2050.
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