Climate and Social Stress Implications for Security Analysis (2013) / Chapter Skim
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4 How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses
4 How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses
Pages 75-96
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From page 75... ...
Global Change Research Program. In this chapter, we briefly review knowledge and insights from these fields that are relevant to security analysis and also review the implications for assessing the potential of climate change to influence social and political stresses.
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From page 76... ...
There is some basis for expecting that indicators that aggregate over large areas, such as global food production or global incidence of humanitarian disasters, will be more affected by global climate trends than outcomes in any single location simply because the "signal" of climate change relative to natural variability tends to be clearer at larger spatial scales (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)
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From page 77... ...
In light of recent food price increases, there has been a renewed interest in the effects of high international food prices on domestic prices and social and political stresses. One clear finding is that domestic prices in many countries change substantially less than global prices, partly because of exchange rate variability and partly because of policies aimed at stabilizing domestic prices, such as tariff adjustments, export restrictions, and the use of government storage (Dawe, 2008; Naylor and Falcon, 2010)
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From page 78... ...
It is worth noting that the rapid food price increases in the MENA during this period were not driven by local weather conditions, but by events around the world including a severe heat wave in Russia. A report by Lagi et al.
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From page 79... ...
Several types of climate events could cause such disruptions. Tropical storms and the increased storm surges that result from sea level rise and, in some cases, land subsidence, can disrupt production, refining, and transport of petroleum.
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These possibilities deserve more careful empirical analysis, particularly as energy markets continue to tighten with increased consumption from Asian nations and as risks increase of climate events disrupting energy supplies. Strategic Product Supply Chains Over the past few decades the globalization of many industries has been accompanied by a streamlining of their supply chains in order to reduce costs.
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The floods also caused significant disruption to regional and global supply chains. Manufacturing parks located near Bangkok supply parts for the worldwide automobile and electronics industries.
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Again, the effects might be felt far from the locations where the climate events occur. Climate events, especially when they occur in clusters, can also stress the capacity of international disaster response and humanitarian relief systems and thus cause harm in places that are not directly affected by the events but that need international assistance for other reasons.
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From page 83... ...
For example, a typhoon coming ashore in the Philippines has very different consequences from one of similar strength striking Japan (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2009b)
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. Factors that are widely agreed to influence susceptibility include economic, demographic, social, cultural, and environmental conditions; the form and quality of the infrastructure and the built environment; the presence of social capital; the effectiveness of institutions and governance; and the presence or a recent history of violent conflict (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, 2012)
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Key social, cultural, and demographic factors associated with increased susceptibility include low levels of education and low literacy rates within the population, high degrees of gender inequality, and large shares of elderly or dependent individuals (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)
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Many of the above factors are generic to all types of climatic shocks and stresses, while others apply to specific types of climatic hazards, such as floods or heat waves. For example, a higher level of per capita income generally means lower susceptibility to all types of climatic stresses, while the type and quality of housing stock is more relevant to the susceptibility of coastal populations to hurricanes and other storm events.
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. Because susceptibilities and initial coping capacities are not evenly distributed across an affected area, loss and damage patterns are highly differentiated even within a single community, with some neighborhoods or sub-areas (or even states for that matter)
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Highly differentiated loss and damage patterns may then be exacerbated as some parts of a community cope reasonably well with the damage and receive timely emergency assistance during response and then support for recovery, while other parts, with higher loss and damage levels and lower initial coping capacities, receive less than proportional help during BOX 4-1 Cyclones in Bangladesh and Myanmar In 1970, in what was then East Pakistan, between 300,000 and 500,000 people died from the multiple effects of Cyclone Bhola. The disaster contributed to pre-existing tensions between West Pakistan and East Pakistan and the even tual violent attempt at secession by East Pakistan, intervention by India, and the creation of the new nation of Bangladesh.
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From page 89... ...
Thus a major lesson is that post-impact social stresses derive not only from the total of disaster losses in a community or nation, but also -- and of more concern -- from how those losses are differentially experienced across groups, classes, races/ethnicities, genders, and other categories. These stresses are exacerbated if disaster response and recovery efforts are seen as inadequate, inefficient, corrupt, or characterized by favoritism.
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If disaster losses and disruptions are judged to exceed domestic coping capacity and response, the international community (bilateral, international, or national nongovernmental organizations) offers a potential additional response level.
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The processes by which social and political stresses resulting from climate events may visibly manifest in political instability or state breakdown, however, are likely to take months or even several years. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The conceptual framework presented in Chapter 2 is useful for organizing available knowledge on the potential links between climate events and political and social stresses.
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From page 92... ...
These socioeconomic and political factors include total population, population age distribution, level of social and economic development, land use patterns, compliance with building standards, governance capabilities, corruption levels, urbanization, certain changes in the physical infrastructure, and integration with global markets for key commodities. Many other social, economic, and political factors that connect climate events to security threats cannot be projected with confidence at this time.
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From page 93... ...
The known features of both processes give strong reason to expect that the conjunction of climate change and globalization will increase the risk that climate events in one location will have adverse impacts in other parts of the world. Conclusion 4.2: To understand how climate change may create social and political stresses with implications for U.S.
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From page 94... ...
Historically, the USGCRP has devoted the vast majority of its resources to understanding climate processes and only a very small portion to understanding the "human dimensions" of climate change, including vulnerability and response to disruptive climate events. This weakness of the program has been identified repeatedly in program reviews by the National Research Council (e.g., National Research Council, 1992, 1999, 2009)
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From page 95... ...
Establishing such an interagency process does not imply that climate change should be defined as a security issue. Rather, it indicates that security issues are among those that should be considered in developing and executing a research agenda on climate change adaptation and vulnerability.
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