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4. Monitoring the Supply Pool of Science and Mathematics Teachers
Pages 92-115

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From page 92...
... An example of a behavioral component in a model of teacher supply would be the estimated impact of salaries and working conditions on the decision of teachers to continue or to leave teaching. The models examined are limited by the lack of behavioral content.
From page 93...
... Other definitions that are used in state models include students enrolled in the state's education programs and the number of newly certified persons. NCES and some state models have more recently broadened the components of the teacher supply pool.
From page 94...
... Thus, monitoring supply requires keeping track of changes in the supply pool over its various stages. It requires data on certification, on incentives that motivate people to apply for or accept teaching positions, on new hires, and on attrition and retention rates.
From page 95...
... by their sophomore year of college." For purposes of monitoring data and generating information on the supply of science and mathematics teachers that could possibly be used in models, we begin the pipeline at the college level. College Students Planning to Teach The proportions of students enrolled in postsecondary education who are majoring in education; in mathematics; in computer science; in physical, biological, and earth sciences; and in engineering are key components of the supply of science and mathematics teachers at this early stage of the pipeline.
From page 96...
... The meaning of national data on the number of certified teachers is somewhat ambiguous because of the diversity of states' certification requirements. ~ quantify the pipeline leading to certification it is useful to look at the number of students enrolled in education programs.
From page 97...
... The final survey in this series Is scheduled for 1991, but it will be replaced during the next two years by a national longitudinal survey of college graduates. States may also find it valuable to follow their new certificants to understand loss to the pipeline of teachers at this juncture.
From page 98...
... There, only 4 of the 16 science and mathematics teachers hired in the past 5 years were new to teaching. And of those 4, only 1 came directly from college followed by a teacher training program; the other 3 had graduated between 3 and 10 years earlier and had recently gone back to school for their teaching certificate.
From page 99...
... of all new physical science teachers. 1b monitor the supply of science and mathematics teachers, it is necessary to be able to distinguish among the components of the corps of new hires.
From page 100...
... Desired information regarding new hires includes the ability to monitor their incentives to teach. Comparative salary data are needed to indicate the competitiveness of beginning teachers' salaries relative to the starting salaries of alternative nonteaching positions.
From page 101...
... A shortage in an area of need frequently for minority teachers at all levels-often would trigger an aggressive recruiting effort, including trips to other states. It was often mentioned that a few years ago officials traveled to cities experiencing teacher layoffs to recruit science and mathematics teachers; today, however, the officials may have few or no vacancies in these subjects, and no recruiting is needed.
From page 102...
... Different components of the pool can be expected to behave in very different ways. For example, teachers on maternity or health leave during a given year, or laid off and expecting to be called back, can plausibly be expected to return to the teaching pool in the next year at relatively high rates; newly certified teachers who did not obtain teaching jobs even though they have been in the market during the last few years, can be expected to remain in the teacher supply pool with relatively high probability; teachers whose credentials are older and who have been out of the teaching market for several years have a lower probability of being attracted back to teaching; while people with teaching certificates who have followed a completely different career path for many years have a much lower probability of being attracted to teaching.
From page 103...
... At the state level, an important segment of the reserve pool consists of individuals certified by that state who are not currently teaching. By the use of data from the retirement files and the certification files, it is possible for some states to track certificates who still reside in the state and to characterize that segment of the reserve pool by age, certification field, and years of teaching experience.
From page 104...
... Among the results: the median age of the nonteaching new certificates was 33; on average, they obtained their certificates five years after college graduation; slightly more than half had never taught full-time; the majority were employed, usually in education-related work (substitute teaching, enrolled as graduate students, tutoring, etch; 52 percent had applied for public school teaching positions for 1986-87; only about 30 percent of respondents intended to apply for the 1987-88 year; and proportionately fewer science and mathematics majors would apply than education, social studies, and humanities majors. Salary sensitivity was analyzed using the questionnaire data: "The probability that a non-teaching new certificant holding a job outside of education applied for a public school teaching position declined by 6.6 percent for each $10,000 he/she earned in salary" (P.91.
From page 105...
... Continuing teachers represent typically 90 percent of teacher supply in any year. Models tend to use single retention rates or attrition rates for projection purposes.
From page 106...
... The class intervals in the Weiss study differ from those in the RAND study, although she found that only 14 percent of secondary school mathematics teachers and 16 percent of secondary school science teachers were over 50 years old (Weiss, 1987:64~. Data are thus needed from districts on the distribution of teachers by level, age, race/ethnici~, sex, and discipline.
From page 107...
... Effective monitoring of teacher mobility should start with separation data from the states, in the interest of avoiding double-counting. ~Ib be checked is whether the state can subtract "movers" from "leavers." Little is known of the effects of interstate migration on the supply of teachers for a given state, but large systems the panel interviewed in Texas, Nevada, and Washington are noteworthy for major recruiting efforts out of state, as are two of the large-city districts represented at the panel's May 1988 conference, the Los Angeles Unified School District and the school district of Dade Count, Florida.
From page 109...
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From page 110...
... At each stage we have noted data that are needed to provide a clearer picture of the supply of science and mathematics teachers. A SPECIAL CASE: TTIE SUPPLY OF MINORITY TEACHERS In the interviews conducted with school district personnel administrators across the country, they frequently mentioned a shortage of minority teachers.
From page 111...
... · Whites represent 71.2 percent of the children in public schools, but 89.6 percent of the teachers. To trace the special problem of minority underrepresentation in precollege teaching-and, when data are available, science and mathematics teaching in particular selected statistics are shown below to illustrate the monitoring of minority-teacher supply at eight stages of a supply pipeline.
From page 112...
... It appears that the minority teacher supply pool continues to decline with each stage along the pipeline. Most of the declines occur among blacks; other minority groups seem to continue in the supply pipeline at greater rates than blacks, and at greater rates than a decade ago.
From page 113...
... Among the general public-school teaching force, the percentage of teachers who are black decreased from 8.1 percent in 1971 to 6.9 percent in 1986 (NCES, 1988b:70~. The proportions Of secondary science and mathematics teachers in 1985-86 who are black are lower still.
From page 114...
... Retention and attrition. Of 308 minority teachers surveyed as part of Metropolitan Life's 1988 Survey of the American Teacher, 40 percent said they were likely to leave teaching within five years, as opposed to 25 percent of the 891 nonminority respondents (Metropolitan Life, 1988:22~.
From page 115...
... 1b understand fully the forces, influences, and incentives that affect the supply of science and mathematics teachers requires data and behavioral content that the current models do not capture. A sequential approach toward the goal of improved national models is thus recommended.


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