Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure
17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure
Pages 145-152
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 145... ...
suggests that an equivalent doubling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration may occur if minimal (or no) actions are taken to limit the recent, precontrol rates of increase of greenhouse gas emissions (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1990~.
|
From page 146... ...
The radiative forcing associated with each of these gases is depicted as a function of its concentration level in Figure 17.2. As indicated in Chapter 18, the Effects Panel agrees that it is plausible to expect that the increase in the equilibrium global mean temperature of our climatic system that might be implied by an equivalent CO2 doubling would TABLE 17.1 1990 Atmospheric Concentrations, Emissions, and Lifetimes of Key Greenhouse Gases.
|
From page 147... ...
GREENHOUSE FORCING AND TEMPERATURE RISE ESTIMATION 460 440 420 400 380 3.5 o CO o ~ Cal Q z By o CL Ad llJ He o 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 2.0 1 .6 1;2 0.8 CFC-12 ~ CFC-11 \ CFC- 1 13-:\~ ___-CH3CCI3 =: -- ~ __- \ \ O -100 - 80 - 60 - 0 -20 o 20 40 CHANGE IN ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FROM 1990 TO 2030 (%) 147 60 80 100 FIGURE 17.1 Projected concentrations of various greenhouse gases in the year 2030 as a function of change in anthropogenic emissions of those gases over the period 1990 to 2030.
|
From page 148... ...
. Accordingly, the change from its 1990 value of the equilibrium global mean temperature associated with the 2030 concentration of each of the greenhouse gases is calculated for the 1° sensitivity and for the 5° sensitivity.
|
From page 149... ...
The asterisks indicate the projected emissions of the various species, assuming no additional regulatory policies, based on IPCC estimates and the original restrictions agreed to under the Montreal Protocol. Interactions among different species and the indirect chemical effects induced by these species (east.' on stratospheric ozone)
|
From page 150... ...
To provide an indication of the potential climatic importance of the change in radiative flux, temperature change multipliers have been used to produce the vertical coordinates on the right-hand side of the figure. The commitment to future warming (i.e., the expected equilibrium temperature increase)
|
From page 151... ...
, their greenhouse warming effect will be relatively modest over this period, although continued emissions would allow an additional concentration buildup and the associated forcing. The uncontrolled CFCs do not generally have long lifetimes.
|
From page 152... ...
The extent to which changes in radiative forcing will be significant to society depends on the climate sensitivity and the consequent climatic impacts on human activities and natural systems. Given that past climates have varied substantially as a result of comparable forcings and that ecosystems under such conditions were quite different than at present, however this schematic analysis suggests that significant climate change will be very difficult to avoid, although its rate of onset may be slowed.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.