Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
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23 Transportation Energy Management
23 Transportation Energy Management
Pages 286-329
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and thus the majority of transportation-related CO2 emissions. In reviewing methods of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, the panel focused on three areas: vehicle efficiency, alternative transportation fuels, and transportation system management.
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As shown, some consumers accepted the smaller vehicles offered to improve energy efficiency, while others resisted the change in performance and either did not buy cars or shifted to light-duty trucks and vans. Because market conditions and fuel prices cause consumer preferences for fuel-efficient vehicles to change over time, one should distinguish between the trends in overall vehicle fuel economy and powertrain efficiency.
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From page 288... ...
An envelope of currently "acceptable trades" in the United States is shown in Figure 23.3 in a schematic calculated by Amann (19891. The envelope represents measured performance and fuel economy data for 50 different models of cars produced in 1985 and 1986, all equipped with automatic transmissions.
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civil air fleet except those operated under CFR parts 121 and 127 (i.e., air carriers larger than 30 seats or a payload capacity of more than 7500 pounds)
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The fuel economy index (FEI) is an index of powertrain efficiency, the product of vehicle mass and fuel economy.
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Another method of improving vehicle efficiency is to increase transmission efficiency. The focus here is on reducing the losses associated with either automatic or manual transmissions through design changes.
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1 qaq Y l::= ~ 1979 / Weight-Class Averages 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 PERFORMANCE INDEX (s) FIGURE 23.3 Fuel economy index (FEI)
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were assembled (see Appendix E) to calculate the three different curves in Figures 23.4 (6 percent discount rated and 23.5 (30 percent discount rate)
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5 o 15 20 25 30 ON-ROAD FUEL ECONOMY (mpg) FIGURE 23.4 Cost of gasoline and efficiency (6 percent discount rate)
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for those that involve changes in life-style.) The costs are much higher when a discount rate of 30 percent is used the rate of return consumers generally desire for investing in vehicle efficiency.
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297 x a' Fin ._ an v ._ Cal > o 50 Ct .> U
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As illustrated here, the difference between full-cycle emission accounting and consumption emission accounting is quite large and could make a difference in comparing different emission reduction options. Note also that the CO2 emissions determined In these analyses are multiplied by 1.55 to obtain CO2 equivalents and thus account for nonCO2 greenhouse gas emissions equivalence for both the cost-effectiveness and the emission reduction numbers.
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From page 299... ...
at a discount rate of 30 percent: The perspective in Figure 23.5 is that of a consumer expecting a 10-year benefit stream from a 30 percent discount rate on future benefits. If consumers in these five nations had no preference in a choice between purchasing fuel economy technology and purchasing gasoline, they would choose a set of technologies on one of the three curves.
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. · Consumer perception: Some consumers often do not perceive the financial benefit from buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle because they look only at the capital cost of the vehicle they are paying at that time instead of the financial savings due to lower fuel consumption over the life of the vehicle.
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If the selection of large vehicles is constrained, consumers may choose to retain less-efficient vehicles, and scrappage rates may be reduced. The following policy options could be used to encourage vehicle efficiency improvements.
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Robert Crandall, a member of the Mitigation Panel, believes that "the panel's conclusions on the cost of energy conservation through improvements in vehicle efficiency are excessively optimistic and likely to be misinterpreted as reflecting the cost of further extensions of CAFE. Any estimate of the full costs of a policy designed to improve the fuel efficiency of new vehicles must include all such costs, including the feedback effects on vehicle mix, average vehicle age, and as some analyses indicate, on highway fatalities."
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TaxlRebate Vehicle Packages Another alternative for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a "guzzler/ sipper" tax. In this case, the consumer can be encouraged to purchase a fuel-efficient ("sipper")
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Emission Control Methods Three studies (DeLuchi et al., 1988; California Energy Commission, 1989; Ho and Renner, 1990) have examined the impact of using alternative motor vehicle fuels on greenhouse gas emissions.
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Although the emissions of CH4 and N2O are small in comparison with CO2 emissions, their much greater infrared absorption efficiencies make their contributions to vehicular greenhouse gas emissions measurable. For example, in the California Energy Commission (1989)
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Fuels that could result in increased greenhouse gas emissions include the following: · methanol from coal; · electricity from new coal-fired power plants; and · ethanol from biomass, but produced and transported using fossil fuel. The fuels that eliminate or nearly eliminate greenhouse gas emissions include the following: fuel; · methanol from wood using biomass fuel to produce and transport the
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However, further technological advances, particularly with batteries, but probably also involving the electrical charging infrastructure, are needed to produce electric vehicles that will be as convenient to use as today's fossil-fuel powered vehicles. For nearly a century, battery limitations have prevented the EV from satisfying personal transportation demands on a widespread basis.
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To properly calculate the ~asoline-eauivalent cost-effectiveness for alternative transportation fuels, assumptions need to be made as to the feedstock costs, production costs, capital charges, longdistance shipping costs, distribution costs, retail markup, and fuel/gasoline energy conversion rate. The cost of each of these is affected by such factors as vehicle design, available subsidies, location of markets, technological development and trade-offs, timing, magnitude of development, and many other factors.
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Recent Trends Cars and light trucks drove more than 1.7 trillion miles in the United States in 1987 double the amount driven in 1965 (Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, 1989~. The number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
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The most ambitious such plan has been established in southern California, where a combination of aggressive transportation demand management (to create 1.6 million new ridesharing trips and 1.4 million new mass transit trips) and construction of more than 1200 miles of HOV lanes is projected to reduce base-case VMT growth by 24 percent and hours of traffic delay by 90 percent by 2010 (Southern California Association of Governments, 1989~.
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Second, without control measures, growth in VMT could completely offset the CO2 reduction effects of improved fuel economy. Third, reducing travel demand and commuting distances can make alternative fuels more practicable by reducing the amount of fuel needed and shortening the required range of alternative fuel ve hicles.
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CPisarski, 1987 Assumes an average passenger car fuel efficiency of 15 mpg rather than 19 mpg during commuting periods due to decreased efficiency from reduced vehicle speeds. eAssumes that load factors during peak periods are approximately double average load factors.
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. Policy Options A number of transportation system management options can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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, although it does not appear large enough to increase incentives for vehicle efficiency improvements (Ross, 1989~. Higher gasoline prices may help reduce vehicle usage because they are the type of out-of-pocket cost consumers weigh when making travel decisions.
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Department of Transportation surveys have concluded that parking management is an essential element of any broader transportation demand management program (U.S.
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Such a parking management program would produce a cumulative CO2 reduction of 49 Mt annually at a cost of-$4.75 billion to $2.6 billion, for a cost-effectiveness value of-$97/t CO2 to $53/t CO2.* The term "transportation demand management" (TDM)
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Department of Transportation, Urban Mass Transit Administration, 1989a; Southern California Association of Governments, 1989; Deakin, 1990; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1990)
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Costs are frequently in the range of $15 to $55 per employee, but may be as high as $100 per employee per year (Municipality of Metropolitan Seattle, Service Development Division, 1989; U.S. Department of Transportation, Urban Mass Transit Administration, 1989a)
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carpools carrying three or more persons. In recent years, construction of HOV lanes has gained acceptance as an effective means of reducing commuting time, encouraging ridesharing, and increasing vehicle occupancy rates (Southern California Association of Governments, 1989~.
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Motor vehicles are also responsible for a variety of toxic emissions (especially benzene and formaldehyde) from exhaust and gasoline vapors, all of which also could be reduced by greenhouse gas mitigation measures.
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Differences in commuting time between automobiles and other modes will also narrow if congestion increases automobile travel times: average vehicle speeds in southern California are projected to fall to 19 mph in the absence of transportation system management (Southern California Association of Governments, 1989~. In addition, behavioral studies indicate that commuters are more concerned about travel time reliability than total elapsed travel time (Wachs, 19891; thus minimizing variations in travel time on mass transit and in the use of HOV lanes should reduce consumer welfare losses.
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For these reasons, a focus on transportation is an important component of policy. Of the three different types of methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, vehicle efficiency has the greatest potential.
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In the interim, alternative fuels should not be used if the switch from gasoline increases life-cycle carbon emissions. In the area of transportation system management, supply-side measures such as providing lIOV lanes and increasing mass transit capacity and demand-side measures involving pricing, parking availability, and transportation demand management can cost-effectively and substantially reduce vehicle miles traveled, traffic congestion, fuel use, and CO2 emissions.
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1989. Comparing the Impacts of Different Transportation Fuels on the Greenhouse Effect.
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transportation sector to policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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1989. Transportation Demand Management Strategy Cost Estimates.
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1990. The Greenhouse Effect and Motor Vehicle Emissions of Greenhouse Gases.
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1989. Transportation demand management: Policy implications of recent behavioral research.
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