Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
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26 Population
26 Population
Pages 414-423
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From page 414... ...
All these activities necessarily involve emissions of greenhouse gases. Income growth also affects greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 415... ...
Today, Asia contains 58.3 percent of the world's population; Europe and the former USSR contain 15.9 percent; the Americas contain 13.8 percent; Africa contains 11.5 percent; and Oceania, 0.5 percent. By 2020, World Bank estimates show Asia at 58.2 percent, Africa at 18.9 percent, the Americas at 12.4 percent, Europe and the former USSR at 10.1 percent, and Oceania at 0.5 percent (Bulatao et al., 1989a,b,c,d)
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From page 416... ...
Urbanization and industrialization have also been linked to decreased fertility rates (Johnson and Lee, 1987; National Research Council, 1987; Gillespie et al., 1989~. The provision of family planning services is another important policy variable in achieving reduced fertility.
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From page 417... ...
Thus population control options exist in countries not achieving economic growth development, but they probably cannot produce large changes and initiate a large demographic transition unless economic development takes place. When development does occur, the demographic transition can be very rapid, as demonstrated by Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
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From page 418... ...
Thus support of both population and economic development programs is not self-defeating from a greenhouse gas mitigation standpoint. However, it is important to note that countries experiencing rapid economic growth will need greenhouse gas mitigation programs similar to those needed for developed countries.
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From page 419... ...
(6.2) 1990 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2020 1.56 1.92 2.35 6.07 2050 2.43 3.69 5.54 14.31 2100 5.11 10.95 23.14 59.75 CO2 emissions, annual 1 990 2020 2050 2100 1.0 3.37 9.79 47.83 CO2 emissions, cumulated 1.0 3.59 11.44 40.47 1.0 3.90 11.63 67.06 1.0 6.17 16.12 57.71 1990 1.0 1.0 1.01.0 2020 65.5 68.8 73.5107.5 2050 262.9 294.3 306.4441.3 2100 1,703.4 1,591 2,2712,286 Family planning effect (base = CO2 emission, cumulated)
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From page 420... ...
Increasing availability of contraceptives where they are demanded and the concomitant reduction in fertility rates could help to hold down overall greenhouse gas emissions at a relatively inexpensive cost per ton of CO2. It would be prudent for the United States to consider increasing funding for voluntary family planning services for LDCs requesting such assistance.
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From page 421... ...
While some researchers indicate that increased population growth will result in increased greenhouse gas emissions, others feel that a reduction in population will result in increased greenhouse gas emissions as the per capita income of the population increases. A better understanding of the links among population growth, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions would aid decision makers in their determination of whether family planning is a worthwhile policy to pursue with regard to greenhouse warming.
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From page 422... ...
Region Population Projections: 1989-90 Edition. World Bank Staff Working Paper WPS 329.
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From page 423... ...
Journal of Policy Modeling 10:1. World Bank.
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