Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
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29 Findings and Recommendations
29 Findings and Recommendations
Pages 465-498
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From page 465... ...
No attempt has been made to judge whether action to mitigate greenhouse warming should be taken. If through the political process, however, the United States decides to attempt to mitigate greenhouse warming, it should do so as efficiently as possible, with a broad appreciation of the alternatives available, their potential effectiveness, and the implications of their implementation.
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From page 466... ...
It may be appropriate for the United States and other industrial economies to seek low-cost opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries, or to provide economic and technological support, through the political process, should these countries decide that such actions are warranted. Three basic premises are central to the panel's comparison of different mitigation policy options.
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From page 467... ...
A sensible guideline is cost-effectiveness: obtaining the largest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at the lowest cost to society. Positive or negative effects of any mitigation option on societal factors not related to greenhouse warming must also be taken into account.
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From page 468... ...
Reduce lighting energy consumption by 30 to 60% by replacing 100% of commercial light fixtures with compact fluorescent lighting, reflectors, occupancy sensors, and daylighting. Use additional insulation, seals, improved heating elements, reflective pans, and other measures to increase efficiency 20 to 30%.
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From page 469... ...
Reduce fuel consumption up to 30% by improving energy management, waste heat recovery, boiler modifications, and other industrial process enhancements. Switch 0.6 quadsa of current coal consumption in industrial plants to natural gas or oil.
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From page 470... ...
Improve overall thermal efficiency of coal plants by 10% through use of integrated gasification combined cycle, pressurized fluidizedbed, and advanced pulverized coal combustion systems. Replace all existing fossil-fuel-fired plants with gas turbine combined cycle systems to both improve thermal efficiency of current natural gas combustion systems and replace fossil fuels such as coal and oil that generate more CO2 than natural gas.
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From page 471... ...
Replace existing automobile air conditioners with equipment that utilizes fluorocarbon substitutes. Replace all domestic refrigerators with those using fluorocarbon substitutes.
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From page 472... ...
Burn sulfur in ships or power plants to form sulfate aerosol in order to stimulate additional low marine clouds to reflect sunlight. Place iron in the oceans to stimulate generation of CO:-absorbing phytoplankton.
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From page 473... ...
· Category 3 options: Mitigation options that appear to be feasible with the current, limited state of knowledge. They may, with additional investigation, research, and development, provide the ability to change atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, or radiative forcing, and the ultimate impact of greenhouse warming on a substantial scale.
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From page 474... ...
Although the menu of options reviewed is not intended to provide an inventory of all possibilities, it seeks to identify the most promising options. The panel hopes that it provides the beginnings of a structure and a process for identifying those strategies that could appropriately respond to the prospect of greenhouse warming.
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From page 475... ...
Category 2 Options As shown in Table 29.3, there are actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or compensate for their climatic effects, that are either economically costly in the sense that the nation or the world must reduce its future income to reduce the potential for climate change, must face implementation obstacles, or will encounter additional benefits and costs not fully reflected in the implementation cost. The panel has tried to make rough estimates of the costs of reducing carbon in the atmosphere through various actions.
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From page 476... ...
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From page 477... ...
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From page 481... ...
Category 3 Options Category 3 options (Table 29.4) , mainly geoengineering options, are those that appear to be feasible with the limited information now available, which may with additional investigation, research, and development provide the ability to change atmospheric concentrations, or radiative forcing, and the ultimate impact of greenhouse warming on a substantial scale.
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From page 482... ...
Category 3 options are those that appear to be feasible and may, with additional investigation, research, and development, provide the ability to change atmospheric concentrations, or radiative forcing, and the ultimate impact of greenhouse warming on a substantial scale. They may also have other benefits and costs not fully represented.
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From page 484... ...
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From page 485... ...
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From page 486... ...
The "+" indicates that there is no known physical limit to this method assuming these options work as expected, just a limit on the amount of mitigation for which we are willing to pay. Mitigation options are placed in order of cost-effectiveness based on the average (arithmetic mean)
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From page 487... ...
A second concern is to avoid "double counting" in compiling the supply curve. For example, the nuclear and natural gas mitigation options replace the same coal-fired power plants.
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From page 488... ...
488 E E E c C ° 0 I ~o of , . ~ 1 MU ~ 1 1 Am: 1 ~I 1 1 1 1 11 10 O O O O O O O O O O ~I t I O O 00 0 1 ~ COST-EFFECTIVENESS ($/t CO2 equivalent)
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From page 489... ...
489 o c: ._ o 3 c': ~ ._ ~ Lit V: au Cal so ~ ._ so ~ 5 C _ C C ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ Cal o v o ~ Cd Cal .
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From page 490... ...
One difficulty with the technological costing approach is that calculations are on a constant cost basis; that is, they do not account for how implementation of these measures may affect the cost of the measure. A major surge in the number of natural gas plants, for example, will likely increase demand for and therefore the price of natural gas.
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From page 491... ...
FIGURE 29.3 Range of technological costing mitigation cost estimates. 25% Implementation/High Cost J ~.
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From page 492... ...
CO2 equivalent emissions ~1 gallon cost estimates (see Appendix 25% Implementation/High Cost Energy Modeling 1 00% I mplementation/Low Cost 100% Annual U.S. CO2 equivalent emissions 1 1 1 1 1 o 2 4 6 EMISSION REDUCTION (billion tons CO2 equivalent per year)
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From page 493... ...
At the current limited state of knowledge the panel believes that the actual implementation costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions (excluding costs beyond those needed directly for implementation) are likely to fall within the range provided by the technological costing method.
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From page 494... ...
Although the analysis of mitigation options in this report does not include all possibilities, the Mitigation Panel is hopeful that it does identify the most promising options considered here. The panel feels confident that it provides the beginnings of a structure and a process for identifying those strategies that could appropriately mitigate the prospect of greenhouse warming.
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From page 495... ...
FINAL THOUGHTS The Mitigation Panel has attempted to outline a perspective that should be pursued relative to mitigation policy. First, the United States needs to realize that although unilateral actions can contribute significantly to the reduction of greenhouse gases, the greenhouse warming phenomenon is global, and national efforts alone would not be sufficient to eliminate the problem.
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From page 496... ...
The rates at which these mitigation options are implemented depends on the decision makers in a wide range of firms, households, and governmental units throughout the United States. Once the cost-effectiveness and mitigation potential of each option were determined, the Mitigation Panel categorized these options.
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From page 497... ...
Political processes will, in the end, determine whether and when these particular mitigation options should be undertaken. The results of this analysis indicate that the United States could make an important contribution to slowing greenhouse warming through adoption of some of these mitigation options.
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