Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
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30 Findings
30 Findings
Pages 501-507
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From page 501... ...
Therefore, how much we spend on climate change depends on its projected importance ranked against other problems we face. The rank of climate change as a policy issue during the next century will be influenced by the speed and direction of climate change and the sensitivity of humanity and nature generally to them.
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From page 502... ...
and international investigations (Smith and Tirpak, 1989; United Nations Environment Programme and The Beijer Institute, 1989; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 19901. We, however, direct most of our attention to adaptations rather than to impacts.
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From page 503... ...
An analysis of likely effects of climate change suggests several strategic indices about which detailed and extended information is important. The indices are rates and directions of change in: .
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From page 504... ...
Table 30.1 summarizes the ranking the panel made.* Fortunately, human activities that bulk very large in the national incomes of modern developed countries have low sensitivity to gradual climate change.
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From page 505... ...
Since sensitivity is the change in an activity per change in climate, the impact of sensitivity times climate change will be positive or negative according to the climate change Adaptation modifies sensitivities as, for example, a lessening during the 20th century of the annual cycle of human mortality demonstrates. Given great wealth, a society might move some things from the third class of questionable adaptation to the middle class of sensitive but adaptable at a cost.
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From page 506... ...
Because the infrastructure of cities is fairly long lived, some adaptations in advance will become profitable if the chance of climate change is high, the wait until the adaptation is needed is short, and the discount rate of money is low. Since tourism and recreation exploit climatic differences from snow fields to desert oases and although local dislocations will occur, these activities seem adaptable to climate change at little net cost.
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From page 507... ...
So, even if the United States could, by and large, adapt to climate change, the misfortunes of others unable to do so could substantially affect the United States and other industrial countries. Over the next 50 years some nations will probably reduce their vulnerability to climate change, but others may become more vulnerable.
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