Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
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33 Methods and Tools
33 Methods and Tools
Pages 525-540
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From page 525... ...
Because flowering, fruiting, and germinating of seed are sensitive to climate, the first adjustment in a system in response to changing climate would probably be failure of some present species to reproduce. This would be followed by the chancy stage of invasion of new species from outside or expansion of species already on the tract but formerly held in check.
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From page 526... ...
If entire communities or all the species except for a few minor ones migrate, these community interactions may be preserved. In the highly dis
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From page 527... ...
If no individuals within the species could compete successfully in the changed climate or were not present or could not reach a favorable climate elsewhere, the species could be extinguished. Instead, if climate changes rapidly, new communities or ecosystems dominated by pioneer rather than climax species are likely to emerge on the margins of zones and populations.
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From page 528... ...
For that choice various incidental and purposeful adjustments are available, at somewhat different time scales for initiation. The most radical choice is to change the original use or location.
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From page 529... ...
In California, managers worked with users to reduce peak demand and accommodated annual differences in supply. They explicitly recognized climate instability and built adjustments to extremes of wet and dry into reservoir operations.
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From page 530... ...
Major breakthroughs like irrigation usually depend on clusters of new social organization and financing as well as new machinery. Many past innovations in hardware and software have helped people adapt to climate and variable weather: in 1873, preservatives for food in warm weather; in 1879, incandescent bulbs for dark days; in 1885, gaso
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From page 531... ...
The estimated life span of the cultivars-varieties that have originated and persisted under cultivation of five major crops in the United States is less than 10 years, and most experts believe the life span of cultivars will grow shorter (Duvick, 1984~. Figure 33.3 shows the similar youth, compared to greenhouse effects, of the capital stock in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRO)
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From page 532... ...
In fact,~if societies grow at 2 to 3 percent per year, as industrialized societies have for the past 150 years, then half of all capital stock will always be less than 30 years old. Probably the systems that take the longest to build are infrastructures that provide transport, energy, water, communications, and means of meeting other human needs.
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From page 533... ...
It is interesting to consider whether climate change could require any public works on this scale; coastal protection and interbasin water transfer would seem the most likely candidates. Because the siting process for infrastructures can be lengthy, siting is needed early if a decision is anticipated in favor of construction of a major new infrastructure to adapt to changing climate or rising seas.
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From page 534... ...
. MAKING DECISIONS IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD A facile recommendation about adaptation is "factor in climate change." We, however, are and will remain uncertain about climate change and its effect on temperature, moisture, and sea level.
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From page 535... ...
The percentage rise in the justified cost caused by a percentage fall in discount or wait is their product: discount rate times years. Imagine lowering the product of discount times wait 1 percent from 6 percent times 100 years to either 6 percent times 99 years or 5.94 percent times 100 years.
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From page 536... ...
The back row of bars rising above 20 cents pertains to a wait of only 50 years and a discount rate of only 3 percent. Since the justified cost is approximately set by the product of discount rate and wait, the middle row, for example, could have been labeled 100 at 3 percent as well as 50 at 6 percent.
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From page 537... ...
In almost all cases discussed in this report, climate change provides only a partial justification for particular actions or investments. For example, stricter zoning of shorelines could serve not only to minimize the impacts of sea level rise but also to lessen habitat destruction.
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From page 538... ...
Buildings will be built above an advancing sea, people escape unpleasant climates, and agricultural and industrial capital leave lands that lose their advantage. But governments can ensure that climatic impacts are translated into signals of price and income that spur private adaptation.
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From page 539... ...
1988. Climate and economic competitiveness: Florida freezes and the global citrus processing industry.
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From page 540... ...
In Proceedings of the World Climate Conference, World Meteorological Organization. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization.
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