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B Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change
Pages 692-707

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From page 692...
... The costbenefit ratio of instruments therefore depends on the mix of goals sought. The third dimension is associated with the complex relationship between flows of emissions and sequestrations, and the resultant augmentation of the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmospheric system, inherently a timedependent phenomenon.
From page 693...
... The presumption here is that the damage to be mitigated arises from the integral of global climate change over each year between now and the endpoint selected. This might be loosely termed the "total damage borne" measure, and a proxy for its mitigation is the sum by years of the augmentation of the stock of greenhouse gases avoided.
From page 694...
... The difference between lines 1 and 2 shows the greenhouse gas stock proxy for the cumulative exposure to global climate change due to future anthropogenic augmentation of greenhouse gases. The vertical difference between the
From page 695...
... First, it is necessary to determine the damage functions associated with the three separate aspects of global climate change speed, total quantity experienced, and ultimate level. Second, it is necessary to associate these with changes in the stock of greenhouse gases.
From page 696...
... This suggests that stabilization of the stock of greenhouse gases would still leave additional global climate change in the system; a reduction of the stock would be required to stabilize the climate itself. Highly simplified, the basic relationships are illustrated in Figures B.la and B.lb, which describe stocks and flows, respectively.
From page 697...
... on Figure B.2a. The prototypical example of this class would be a public relations campaign that caused thermostat adjustments lasting 1 year (case a)
From page 698...
... An example would be investment In establishing a forest that sequesters greenhouse gases at an increasing and then decreasing rate, with the incremental net quantity sequestered reaching zero when the forest is in long-term carbon sequestration equilibrium. The distinction between this and the previous two cases rests on the timing and the nature of the costs borne.
From page 699...
... 3. There is a reduction in the speed of change in global climate, which starts at the time of the action.
From page 700...
... An instrument whose costs yielded climate change benefits only with a lag would have a further hurdle to pass if it led to an initial augmentation of greenhouse gas flows. This would be especially true if lessening the total damage borne were an element in the desired outcome.
From page 701...
... 3. The effect on the rate of change in greenhouse gas stocks is erratic; because sequestration is typically gradual and release rapid, spurts of increase are possible.
From page 702...
... and also the time period over which the reductions in greenhouse gas flows are accumulated. Greater accumulation time reduces both total damage borne and the final level of global climate change.
From page 703...
... 3. There is a reduction in the rate of change in global climate, beginning when flows decline.
From page 704...
... Over time, however, the expectation is that the effects would be positive and large and would grow exponentially as cohorts of reduced size moved through the demographic cycle. This is because the emission of greenhouse gases is expected to be more responsive to falling population than it is to rising per capita income.
From page 705...
... Once begun, there is a cumulative, permanent reduction in greenhouse gas stocks at an exponential rate.
From page 706...
... In this, fully accounting for all the positive aspects of mitigationreduced speed of change, reduced total exposure to damage, and final level of global climate change is important. Each has separate effects on the consequences of societal interest such as rise in sea level, agricultural pro
From page 707...
... Application of the relationships discussed here requires an understanding of the physical relationships among flows, stock, and global climate change that lies beyond current knowledge. It also requires complex judgments about the trade-offs among sometimes competing policy goals.


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