Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) / Chapter Skim
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E Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors
E Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors
Pages 727-758
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From page 727... ...
In recent times, applications of new computer technology to engine control, and applications of refined design techniques and new materials for weight reduction, have led to improved fuel economy (see Table E.21. As the hedonic models of Atkinson and Halvorsen (1984, 1990)
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e665.2314.23.0 Construction209.999.11.0 Farming455.3215.12.1 Nonhighwayb4,490.62,121.020.4 Air1.893.9894.58.6 General aviationf139.165.70.6 Domestic air carriers1,564.2738.87.1 International air carriers190.6g90.00.9 Water1,326.0626.36.0 Freight1,095.7517.55.0 Domestic trade370.7175.11.7 Foreign trade725.0342.43.3 Recreational boats230.3108.81.0 Pipeline775.0366.13.5 Natural gas562.9265.92.6 Crude petroleum91.043.00.4 Petroleum product67.431.80.3 Coal slurry3.71.7c Water50.023.60.2 (Table E.1 continues) consumers choose vehicles as a bundle of attributes that include style, comfort, performance, safety, fuel economy, and price.
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. General aviation includes air taxis, commuter air carriers, and air travel clubs.
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Technologies proposed in Shackson and Leach study now implemented Lubricants 2.0 Design parameters NA NA 5.0 Manual transmission 5.0 improvements Material substitutions 13.0 NOTE: TWC = test weight class; NA = not applicable; CVT = continuously variable transmission; TBI = throttle body injection. aBerger et al.
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fuel economy test procedure as they depend on differences in highway speed, congestion, urban-rural travel mix, and average trip length. To provide a generous estimate of greenhouse gas reductions, a relatively low composite fuel economy baseline of 19.7 mpg will be used for the combined fleet of automobiles and light-duty trucks.
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~ 4 supply curves. The horizontal axis in Figure E.2 represents an estimate of the cumulative annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as though each device were employed in the 1989 fleet.
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The conservation supply curve data (utilizing the cost and fuel economy values for 17 technologies in Table 5 of Ledbetter and Ross) have been used to generate the curve in Figure E.3 for the four different perspectives of this study (see Table Em.
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Industry analyses suggest that the potential for fuel economy improvement solely through diffusion of existing technology is less than one-half that predicted by DOE (see estimates of technology gains listed in Table E.2J. Specific differences in estimates for engine efficiencies are driven primarily by two factors.
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Despite the fact that the data base for these vehicles is relatively meager, it will be possible to create conservation supply curves for three important categories of heavy vehicles. In a study prepared for the Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association by Energy and Environmental Analysis (1984)
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aircraft can also benefit from weight reduction and better aerodynamics. Although some estimate efficiencies approaching 130 to 150 seat-mpg from planned vehicles utilizing fanjets along with other new technologies, personal communication with a participant in that industry would attribute a 20 percent gain to the fanjet technology alone.
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1 c/) o 100 -1 00 Discount Rate 30% Discount Rate 10% Discount Rate 6% ~~ Discount Rate 3% 1 0 25 50 75 100 EMISSION REDUCTION (Mt CO2 equivalenVyr)
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Similarly, the wide range of values in the conservation supply curves based on the Shackson and Leach and the Ledbetter and Ross studies may well be reconciled with these emerging data. In light of these- remaining uncertainties, it is interesting to examine the automobile and light truck conservation supply curves in the context of fuel prices and consumer preference for new car fuel economy.
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for the average new-car fleet efficiencies, along with the average fuel prices for Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and West Germany, are also plotted as squares on the same figure. The automobile fleet fuel economy values were reduced by a factor of 1.3 since increased urban congestion, higher highway speeds, and a larger fraction of total miles being driven in urban areas are projected to increase the difference between the EPA fuel economy test and actual on-road fuel economy from 15 percent in 1987 to 30 percent in 2010 (Ledbetter and Ross, l990J.
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If a 30 percent discount rate and a 10-year lifetime are valid assumptions, consumers in the United States and West Germany choose a level of fuel economy appropriate for their fuel prices, provided the Shackson and Leach curve is an accurate indication of the cost of technology. The fact that three other nations lie a significant distance from the steepest supply curve indicates either that their vehicle use patterns are dramatically different or that the technology cost-effectiveness information is inappropriate.
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756 APPENDIX E TABLE E.9 Implementation Cost of Vehicle Efficiency Improvements Net Implementation Cost ($/t CO2 equivalent)
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1990. A system for Estimating Fuel Economy Potential due to Technology Improvements.
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International Energy Studies, Energy Analysis Program, Applied Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. Shackson, R
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