Ecological Risks Perspectives from Poland and the United States (1990) / Chapter Skim
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Acid Deposition: A Case Study of Scientific Uncertainty and International Decision Making
Acid Deposition: A Case Study of Scientific Uncertainty and International Decision Making
Pages 342-354
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From page 342... ...
were causing unnaturally high acidity in precipitation; and these increased loadings of acidic substances were leading to acidification of certain lakes and streams, and perhaps adversely affecting crops, forests, and human health. By the late 1970s, acid deposition had become a major domestic political issue inside the United States and a major international political issue with Canada.
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From page 343... ...
SCIENCE, POLITICS, AND RESEARCH Although there was a certain incongruity in these two nearly simultaneous events—establishment of a major scientific research program while conducting international negotiations there were also some benefits. The MOI called for establishment of: technical and scientific work groups to assist in preparations for and the conduct of negotiations on a bilateral transboundazy air pollution agreement....
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From page 344... ...
The Work Groups were actually able to reach agreement in a number of important areas, e.g., the amounts of emissions; the relative efficiencies and costs of technologies to decrease emissions from existing and new sources; and the relative lack of knowledge about the effects of acidic deposition on crops, forests, and materials. The Work Groups even reached agreement on the expected degree of accuracy of regional models to predict changes in annual average wet deposition in major receptor areas that would result from emissions reductions in major source regions.
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From page 345... ...
Canadian scientists wanted the Work Group on Impact Assessment to conclude that a reduction of the annual average wet deposition of sulfate to 20 kilograms per hectare per year would protect all but the most sensitive lakes from the adverse effects of acid deposition. The basis for this conclusion was empirical association.
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From page 346... ...
Thus, in part because of scientific uncertainties, the United States faced a political stalemate. WHEN TO ACT: SCIENCE VERSUS POLICY In the United States, issues such as acid deposition are hotly debated by the scientific community, elected officials, environmental groups, industry leaders, the media, and the public at large.
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From page 347... ...
In the absence of a political solution to the acidic deposition problem, the United States conducted a major research program under the Acid Precipitation Act of 1980. President Reagan and his supporters in the United States Congress believed that a rational political decision was to invest in research that would close critical gaps in scientific knowledge.
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From page 348... ...
· Widespread environmental damage at present rates of deposition is unlikely in 5-10 years. MAJOR FEATURES OF THE NAPAP RESEARCH PROGRAM The nature and scope of the NAPAP research program changed significantly as a result of the political stalemate that developed domestically and internationally during the period from 1982 to 1983.
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From page 349... ...
The research approaches used in pursuing these several applied research questions are summarized briefly below: The National Surface Water Survey (NSWS) was initiated in 1984 to provide a statistically based estimate of the number of acidified lakes and streams in various parts of the United States.
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From page 350... ...
Simulated acidic deposition is applied to watersheds and then the response of vegetation, soils, and surface waters is observed. The data generated by these watershed-manipulation studies should provide a definitive test of the power and utility of the watershed models for predicting lakewater responses to possible future changes in acidic deposition loadings.
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From page 351... ...
From a policy perspective, the most important and most controversial conclusions related to the probability of future adverse environmental effects if current rates of acidic deposition were maintained in the future. The Executive Summary of the Interim Assessment emphasized that: · Available observations and current theory suggest that there will not be an abrupt change in aquatic systems, crops, or forests at present levels of air pollution.
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From page 352... ...
Perhaps as important were the Interim Assessments' enumeration of scientific uncertainties which NAPAP hopes to reduce by 1990: · the sources, quantities, and reactivities of natural emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, methane, and alkaline substances (current emissions of these substances are uncertain by about a factor of about 3~; · the origin and distribution of hydrogen peroxide, a primary oxidizing agent in clouds; · the influence of urban emissions on deposition locally (<30 km) and in the mesoscale (30 km to 200 km)
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From page 353... ...
It appears that the degree of scientific certainty that is required to reach a decision about such a complex issue of science and public policy is an inverse function of the degree of public consensus about the same issue. Acid deposition is certainly an example of this generalization.
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From page 354... ...
The Causes and Effects of Acidic Deposition: Interim Assessment, Volume I National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program. Washington, DC.
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