Tanker Spills Prevention by Design (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix H: Expert Judgment Technique
Appendix H: Expert Judgment Technique
Pages 314-322
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From page 314... ...
Ten attributes were used, including performance in four major accident scenarios, susceptibility and containment of fires/explosions, structural failure, salvageability, personnel safety, and cost. A typical expertjudgment rating matrix is shown in Figure H-1.
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The computing process was facilitated by use of spreadsheet software. To provide additional perspective, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, using ratings values and methodology that were identical in every way except that all of the attributes were assigned equal weighting factors (importance)
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. Thus, for the cost attribute, 1 represents the most costly design option, and 9 the least expensive.
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For each attribute, a weighting factor at or near zero indicates low relative importance, while a higher weighting factor indicates greater importance. Two important assumptions were made regarding the double-bottom, doubleside, and double-hull designs: 1)
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From page 318... ...
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The individual average ratings given by all 12 experts were averaged to produce aggregate ratings for the various design options. The first analysis included the weighting factors assigned by each expert, and the sensitivity analysis was conducted with equal weighting factors of 0.1.
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From page 319... ...
This seems to corroborate the results of the pollution-effectiveness study detailed in Chapter 5. · The lowest rated design was the reference design, the existing MARPOL vessel.
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From page 320... ...
320 APPENDIX H TABLE H-3 Ranked Design Options (with weighting factors) Aggregate Design Rank ~ Rating Option 1*
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From page 321... ...
EXPERT JUDGMENT TECHNIQUE TABLE H-4 Ranked Design Options (with equal weighting factors) Aggregate Design Rank ~ Rating Option l 1*
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From page 322... ...
First, as stated earlier, the ratings represent expert estimates, rather than precise actual values. The credibility of the ratings rests on the expert qualifications of committee members and on the information provided and available to the committee.
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