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2 Meteorological Aspects
Pages 9-26

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From page 11...
... westward motion, combined with a dry Saharan air mass surrounding the disturbance, apparently inhibited the formation of a tropical cyclone. The rapid motion was the result of a strong high-pressure ridge building westward across the Atlantic, north of the tropical disturbance.
From page 12...
... A stalling of the hurricane off the west coast of Florida and eventual reversion to westward motion resulted. By 1200 GMT September 1, ridging began across the middle-level trough occupying the eastern United States between 30° and 40° N (Figure 2-2~.
From page 13...
... . Some literature exists describing hurricanes or typhoons of exceptional size, where the storm takes on a motion of its own in response to internal forces and where it does not appear merely to drift on the large
From page 14...
... Source: James Belville, National Weather Service. scale atmospheric flow.
From page 15...
... It should be noted that in no case did the adjusted wind speed exceed the basic design wind speed. However, the adjusted wind speeds were based on rather meager data and could be subject to some error.
From page 17...
... 15 ~Cal Cal o o o o o _.
From page 18...
... In other words, Hurricane Elena was not a storm that significantly exceeded the normally accepted design conditions in use for at least the last 20 years in the applicable building codes and standards (see Chapter 4~. Thus, extensive damage observed cannot be blamed on the use of inappropriate wind-speed criteria.
From page 19...
... designed to run within the framework of the global model. The forecasters at NHC and at other NWS field stations have specific hurricane center forecasts available to them from the LFM, NGM, and MEM models.
From page 20...
... The stalling of Elena off the Florida coast should have appeared in the guidance forecasts from 31/0000 GMT and 01/1200 GMT. The LFM and NGM forecasts from 31/0000 GMT did show the stall for the first 36 hours of the forecast, although the forecast stalling position was about 70 miles west of the actual one.
From page 21...
... These are generally of excellent quality. Examination of its forecasts for Elena showed an uncharacteristically poor performance from starting times of 1200 GMT on August 29, 30, and 31, most probably because of their inadequate analyses of the initial positions of Elena.
From page 22...
... SLOSH hurricane simulation studies have been performed in several coastal areas, including the New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain area, to determine the vulnerable coastal areas. This work has frequently been jointly funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
From page 23...
... Evacuation planning for the New Orleans area is based on these 12 hurricane scenarios and the results of detailed studies of the population, evacuation routes, and road capacity in vulnerable locations. New Orleans is one of the nation's most vulnerable cities to hurricane storm surge.
From page 24...
... The WOW data were available in computer-graphic form through an experimental display being developed at the Techniques Development Laboratory of NWS. The first MEOW data entered into the system, fortunately, were for the Lake Pontchartrain basin.
From page 25...
... Source: James Belville, National Weather Service. Elena's actual track passed just 15 to 20 miles closer to the coast, the winds from Elena were mostly offshore winds that blew away from the coastline, generating negative surge values.
From page 26...
... U.S. Army Corps of


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