Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 2-10
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From page 2... ...
Natural gas vehicles could contribute to the ing future vehicles and fuels, especially costs, timing of additional goal of reducing petroleum consumption by 50 technology advances, commercialization of those advances, percent by 2030. 1 This study considered the following types of LDVs: Vehicles that operate on CNG can also be designed as dual-fuel vehicles that can switch to gasoline when CNG is not available, or as hybrid electric vehicles.
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teristics were analyzed consistently for all vehicle classes and powertrain options, with the partial exception of travel Future petroleum use is likely to decline as more efficient range. Fuel technologies were analyzed individually using vehicles enter the market in response to the Corporate Averconsistent assumptions and cost data across all fuels as age Fuel Economy (CAFE)
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addition, biofuels mandated by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could displace a significant amount of petroleum fuels Finding: Large reductions are potentially achievable by 2030, especially if coupled with advances in processes for in annual LDV GHG emissions by 2050, on the order producing "drop-in" cellulosic biofuels (direct substitutes for of 60 to 70 percent relative to 2005.
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All scenarios except the Com mittee Reference Case (current policies, including the fuel economy standards for 2025) include midrange efficiency improvements.
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) that policies, especially those that focus on investment in vehicles balanced by a tax on low-mpg vehicles is a particular technologies, are not introduced too early (for complementary policy that would assist manufacturexample, before those new fuel and vehicle technologies ers in selling the more-efficient vehicles produced to are close to market readiness, taking into account the best meet fuel economy standards.
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Policy Option: The committee suggests that an expert Policy Option: The committee supports consistent R&D to review process independent of the agencies implementing advance technology development and to reduce the costs the deployment policies and also independent of any politiof alternative fuels and vehicles. The best approach is to cal or economic interest groups advocating for the technolpromote a portfolio of vehicle and fuel R&D, supported by ogies being evaluated be used to assess available data, and both government and industry, designed to solve the criti- predictions of costs and performance.
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From page 8... ...
are being attained. developed that would address some of the drawbacks · With increasing economic natural gas reserves and of lithium-ion batteries, but their potential for com- growing domestic natural gas production mostly mercialization by 2050 is highly uncertain, and they from shale gas, there is enough domestic natural gas may have their own disadvantages.
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the early years, alternative vehicles will likely be lim- · Depending on the readiness of technology and the ited to a few body styles and sizes and will cost from a timing of policy initiatives, subsidies or regulations few hundred to many thousands of dollars more than for new-vehicle energy efficiency and the provision their conventional ICEV counterparts. Some will rely of energy infrastructure may be required, especially on fuels that are not readily available or have limited in the case of a transition to a new vehicle and fuel travel range, or require bulky energy storage that will system.
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From page 10... ...
Department of Energy. used to analyze the transition to alternative vehicles EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
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