Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels (2013) / Chapter Skim
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5 Modeling the Transition to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
5 Modeling the Transition to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
Pages 89-130
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From page 89... ...
Government policies are likely to It is important to emphasize the nature and extent of the be particularly important because the benefits of both petro uncertainties that lie behind all of the analyses in this chapleum and greenhouse gas reductions accrue to the public as ter. First, the analysis uses estimated improvements to fuel a whole, and so market forces alone cannot be relied on to efficiency and fuel carbon content, and the associated costs, provide sufficient reductions.1 for vehicles up to the 2050 model year as provided by expert Two different models were used by the committee to members of this committee, evidence from the literature, and assess the potential and opportunities for achieving the goals consultation with experts outside the committee.
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From page 90... ...
The most up-to-date assumptions from variables influence the market shares of the alternative the committee about vehicle efficiencies, fuel availability, advanced technologies: and the GHG emissions impacts of using those fuels have been included. It is assumed that new-technology vehicle 3 Improvements in the efficiency of energy consumption will result in an sales ramp up slowly and that new sales for a particular effective reduction in the price of energy services, leading to an increase of vehicle type never increase by more than about 5 percent of consumption that partially offsets the impact of the efficiency gain in fuel total new LDV sales in a given year.
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From page 91... ...
in 2050. This is consistent with the 5.3 RESULTS FROM RUNS OF VISION MODEL Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which Forecasts of the penetration rates of different types of requires a fleetwide fuel economy test value of at least 35.5 vehicles using the VISION model must be compared to some mpg in 2020 and includes modest improvements in vehicle alternative outcome in which there are no further policy efficiency thereafter.
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From page 92... ...
include all of the midrange assumptions it developed about by 2050. vehicle efficiencies, fuel availability, and GHG emission Greenhouse gas emissions are 30 percent below 2005 rates up to 2025 (summarized in Chapters 2 and 3)
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From page 93... ...
Two runs are (e.g., electric vehicles and grid with reduced GHG emissions, included that differ only in their assumptions about or fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen generated with CCS)
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From page 94... ...
GHGe 2.5 1200 Oil Use 1000 2 800 50% below 2005 levels 1.5 600 1 400 80% below 2005 levels 0.5 200 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 FIGURE 5.4 Petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions for the Committee Reference Case. Figure 5-04 Impacts and Usage, Reference.eps requirements described in the Committee Reference liquid fuel falls to about 25 percent by 2050.
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From page 95... ...
It is important to note that all of these scenarios assume sales by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050, in line with the very aggressive deployment of the specific vehicles and fuels rates put forth in Transitions to Alternative Transpor- being emphasized. The VISION model cannot address how tation Technologies: Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles these vehicle shares would be achieved.
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From page 96... ...
No GTL or CTL fuel is used in the fuel cell and natural gas scenarios. Fuel Usage in 2050 (by Technology)
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From page 97... ...
The LAVE-Trans model is Although these model results illustrate penetration levels then used to approximately replicate the VISION model of certain vehicles and fuels that may achieve the petroleum scenarios, which again shows broad consistency but also usage and/or greenhouse gas emissions reductions desired, some differences between the two models. The strategy and the VISION model does not estimate the cost or the policy approach to policy analysis using the LAVE-Trans model actions that would be necessary.
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From page 98... ...
As a result, the from ICEVs fueled by petroleum to plug-in electric initial costs of BEVs, PHEVs, CNGVs, and FCEVs are much vehicles, fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen, and higher than the long-run costs projected in the midrange compressed natural gas vehicles, respectively. These and optimistic scenarios.
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From page 99... ...
PHEV fuel economy is the same as HEV mpg mean fewer imports from insecure sources, which will likely when operating in charge-sustaining mode and the same as reduce the magnitude of the social costs of using petroleum. BEVs when operating in charge-depleting mode.
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From page 100... ...
& Carbon/Oil Tax $6 $/gge $4 $2 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.11 Retail prices of hydrogen (in 2009$) under 5-11 Price of Hydrogen.eps Figure various policy assumptions.
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From page 101... ...
In the committee's judgment, the 80 percent greenhouse gas mitigation goal reflects a societal willingness to pay that is most consistent with the highest, 95th percentile estimates. This is the value the committee refers to as the social value of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 102... ...
. The LAVE-Trans model was period that are substantially higher than the LAVE-Trans used to estimate the per-vehicle subsidies required to achieve model estimates the market would sustain without continuing the market shares for alternative technologies assumed in the subsidies.
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From page 103... ...
about the value of reducing petroleum consumption and Policies to induce transitions to alternative vehicle and fuel the value of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The comcombinations begin at various dates and are phased out once mittee's approach is to value these reductions according to the alternative technologies achieve a sustainable market society's willingness to pay, as reflected in the stringency of share.
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From page 104... ...
Because the fuel economy and emissions that electricity or hydrogen is produced via methods with $10,000 $0 Discount Rate = 2.3%/year Present Value $ (millions) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -$10,000 -$20,000 CNGVs Midrange -$30,000 Efficiency Midrange Efficiencyw/Biofuel Midrange -$40,000 FCVs Midrange Low-C H2 PEVs Midrange Low-C Grid -$50,000 FIGURE 5.13 Annual subsidies to alternative fuels vehicles required to match five VISION cases.
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From page 105... ...
5.4.2.1 Transition Policies These policies are implicit in all model runs except the BAU A transition to an alternative vehicle and fuel combination and Reference Cases. Their costs are reflected in the prices such as fuel cells and hydrogen or plug-in electric vehicles of the fuels for those cases assuming fuels produced with may be necessary to meet the reduction goals.
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From page 106... ...
The committee has not attempted to estimate those potential benefits, and they are not · Subsidy costs include the implicit or explicit vehicle included in the cost and benefit estimates. subsidies due to the higher costs of more efficient vehicles with lower greenhouse gas emissions, and The net present value (NPV)
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From page 107... ...
GHGe Oil Use 2.5 1200 1000 2 800 50% below 2005 levels 1.5 600 1 400 80% below 2005 levels 0.5 200 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.15 Changes in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the Efficiency case with midrange technology estimates as compared to 2005 levels.
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From page 108... ...
of thermochemical biofuels were captured and stored, an estimated 78 percent reduction in GHG emissions versus 200 180 On-road Fuel Economy (mpgge) 160 BEVs 140 FCEVs 120 PHEVs 100 HEVs 80 ICEVs 60 40 Fleet 20 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 5.16 Average fuel economy of on-road vehiclesFuel Economy, Efficiency.eps Figure 5-16 for the Efficiency case with midrange technology estimates.
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From page 109... ...
1600 2005 levels 3 1400 Petroleum Usage (B bbl/yr) GHGe Oil Use 2.5 1200 1000 2 800 50% below 2005 levels 1.5 600 1 400 80% below 2005 levels 0.5 200 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.19 Changes in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG)
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From page 110... ...
GHG emissions below 2005 in 2050. Greenhouse gas emissions are reduced are 31 and 63 percent below the 2005 level in 2030 and 2050, 74 percent by 2050.
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From page 111... ...
necessary to produce the transition are essentially the same, By 2050, BEVs make up 35 percent of new-vehicle sales, as well, $50 billion. while PHEVs are 6 percent, both shares similar to the cases $25,000 GHG Mitigation Petroleum Reduction $20,000 Uncounted Energy Net Present Value in Millions of $ Surplus Change $15,000 Subsidies Total NPV $10,000 $5,000 $0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -$5,000 FIGURE 5.21 Estimated costs and benefits of the5-21 NPV, PEV+Policy+LowC.eps Figure transition to 25 percent plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)
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From page 112... ...
In 2050 petroleum consumption is down an estimated 90 percent relative to 2005 and GHG emissions are 59 percent 25000 20000 Vehicle Sales (1000s/yr) 15000 FCEVs 10000 BEVs PHEVs 5000 HEVs ICEs 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.22 Vehicle sales by vehicle technology with midrange technology assumptions and low-carbon production of hydrogen, fuel cell vehicle subsidies, and additionalFigure 5-22 Vehicle Sales FCEV+Policy+LowC.eps incentives.
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From page 113... ...
CNGV sales peak hydrogen, there is no initial phase of high prices at low at 49 percent from 2031-2034, then decline to 33 percent in volumes. Natural gas refueling stations are still required, $60,000 GHG Mitigation $50,000 Petroleum Reduction Uncounted Energy Net Present Value in Millions of $ Surplus Change $40,000 Subsidies Total NPV $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -$10,000 FIGURE 5.24 Present value cost and benefits of a transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles using midrange technology assumptions, fuel cell Figure 5-24 NPV, FCEV+Policy+LowC.eps vehicle subsidies and additional incentives, and a low-GHG infrastructure for the production of hydrogen.
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From page 114... ...
Oil Use 2.5 1200 1000 2 800 50% below 2005 levels 1.5 600 1 400 80% below 2005 levels 0.5 200 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.26 Changes in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions for midrange technology estimates with policies promoting compressed natural gas vehicles. Figure 5-26 Impacts and Usage, CNGV+Policy.eps Greenhouse Gas Impacts and Petroleum Usage, CNGVs + Policy
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From page 115... ...
Given the uncertainty inherent in the 25000 20000 Vehicle Sales (1000s/yr) 15000 FCEVs 10000 BEVs PHEVs 5000 HEVs ICEs 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.27 Vehicle sales by vehicle technology for midrange technologies and policies promoting the adoption and use of plug-in electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, andVehicle Sales FCEV_PEV+Bio+Policy.eps Figure 5-27 biofuels.
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From page 116... ...
It will require strong and sustained polibased on hydrogen fuel cell market success; one combines cies to continuously improve the energy efficiency of LDVs plug-in vehicle market success with biofuels. One relies on and to de-carbonize the systems supplying energy for the efficiency plus greater use of pricing policies, but this also vehicles, and very likely it will also require strong poliinduces a massive shift to plug-in vehicles by 2050.
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From page 117... ...
, benefits to the owners of all large body of literature on transitions to alternative vehicles vehicles (i.e., the increased consumer surplus) , and benefits and fuels.
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From page 118... ...
+FBSC+L$H2 GHGe Oil FCEV(Opt) +FBSC+IHUF+Trans+LCH2 GHGe Oil PEV+FCEV+FBSC+IHUF+Trans+LCe+LCH2 GHGe Oil PEV+FCEV+Bio+FBSC+IHUF+Trans+LCe+LCH2 GHGe FIGURE 5.28 Estimated petroleum usage and greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, by policy scenario.
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From page 119... ...
+FBSC+L$H2 GHGe Oil FCEV(Opt) +FBSC+IHUF+Trans+LCH2 GHGe Oil PEV+FCEV+FBSC+IHUF+Trans+LCe+LCH2 GHGe Oil PEV+FCEV+Bio+FBSC+IHUF+Trans+LCe+LCH2 GHGe FIGURE 5.29 Estimated petroleumFigure 5-29 Usage emissions in 2050, by - 2050.eps Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle usage and greenhouse gas and Emissions policy scenario.
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From page 120... ...
As noted in the committee's own The committee accepted as a premise in its modeling the work, fuel economy standards will have to be an important achievement by 2030 of the production of volumes of biofuel driver in reducing vehicle energy consumption. specified in RFS2 and did not examine scenarios in which One of the major implications of the committee's modelbiofuel deployment did not achieve these levels.
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From page 121... ...
For example, although fuels in the LDV fleet. Moreover, the committee has examthe proposed UC-Davis scenarios for LDV GHG emissions ined several different policy options for achieving this transireductions appear to be of a comparable magnitude, a large tion, including multiple carbon pricing options, feebates, fuel fraction of the reductions in the scenarios with the lowest taxes, and vehicle subsidies, leading to a number of pathways GHG emissions come from a 25 percent decrease in VMT exhibiting sizable reductions in petroleum consumption and per capita, resulting in a 324 MMTCO2 decrease in emissions greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 122... ...
15000 FCEVs 10000 BEVs PHEVs 5000 HEVs ICEs 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.32 Vehicle sales by technology: Optimistic Plug-in Electric Vehicle Scenario. Figure 5-32 Adaptive - Vehicle Sales PEV.eps random walk14 (e.g., Hamilton, 2009; Anderson et al., 2011; expectations.
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From page 123... ...
.eps Greenhouse Gas Impacts and Petroleum Usage, Optimistic PEVs both vehicle types, decreasing each year until all subsidies is almost met by a 41 percent reduction in petroleum use are ended after 2035 (Figure 5.31)
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From page 124... ...
1600 2005 levels 3 1400 Petroleum Usage (B bbl/yr) GHGe Oil Use 2.5 1200 1000 2 800 50% below 2005 levels 1.5 600 1 400 80% below 2005 levels 0.5 200 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 5.37 Changes in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions versus 2005 in Pessimistic Plug-in Electric Vehicle Technology Scenario with Adaptation to promote hydrogen fuel cell vehicles after 2024.and Usage, FCEV.eps Figure 5-37 Adapted - Impacts Greenhouse Gas Impacts and Petroleum Usage, Adaptive Policy
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From page 125... ...
be willing to pay to get one of the first plug-in hybrid electric Further, assume that a decision is made to change course 3 or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. And while there are many to 4 years after the higher PEV subsidies are offered in 2021.
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From page 126... ...
2005 Figure 5-38 Uncertainty - GHGe FCEV.eps FIGURE 5.38 Distribution of estimated greenhouse gas emissions reductions from 2005 level: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Case. Distribution of Estimated GHG Emissions Reduction in 2050 from 2005 Level: Fuel Cell Vehicles
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From page 127... ...
Figure 5-39 Uncertainty - GHGe PEV.eps Distribution of Estimated GHG Reduction in 2050 from 2005 Level: Plug-in Electric Vehicles 30% 52% 90% Interval 25% Relative Frequency (%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Market Share (%)
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From page 128... ...
The committee's modeling suggests that oil use and greenhouse gas emissions will require a mix reductions in petroleum use on the order of 70 to 90 perof strong public policies, market forces that encourage cent are possible given very strong policies and continued greater energy efficiency, and continued improvements advances in the key technologies: electric-drive vehicles in vehicle and fuels technologies. As the comparison of (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery, and fuel cell)
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From page 129... ...
Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Prepared by the U.S.
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From page 130... ...
Electric Vehicles. Volume 1: Nationwide Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
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