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Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Introduction
Pages 1-4

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From page 1...
... This first report highlights issues brought to the committee's attention during its first three meetings and provides initial observations and insights in response to each of the three tasks above. It is very much an interim report that neither addresses in its entirety any one element of the terms of reference nor reaches final conclusions on any aspect of capability surprise for naval forces.
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From page 2...
... .3 In addition, a 2008 Naval Research Advisory Committee (NRAC) report titled Disruptive Commercial Technologies noted, among other things, that "the internet 2 Defense Science Board.
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From page 3...
... and tactical surprise are types of short-timeline -- hours to months -- events or capabilities for which naval forces will likely not have had sufficient time to prepare contingency counters in advance unless the 4 Naval Research Advisory Committee.
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From page 4...
... The other variant -- "black swan" events -- may be self-inflicted surprises, e.g., an anticipatory "blind spot" that no amount of surveillance would have overcome.5 These may be the result of a sudden U.S. policy change or directed action, such as Operation Burnt Frost,6 or natural disasters that may have been anticipated, but not at the extreme scale of the event as it actually occurred, e.g., the March 2011 Fukushima Disaster.7 In the broadest sense, surprise grants the adversary the ability to take unexpected action and/or to produce consequences for which U.S.
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Key Terms

  • capability surprise
  • missile defense
  • commercial technologies
  • capability surprises
  • defense science

  • marine forces
  • potential emerging
  • ballistic missile
  • disruptive technology
  • emerging surprises

  • disruptive commercial
  • research advisory
  • nrac report
  • tactical surprise
  • aegis ballistic

  • highly improbable
  • operation burnt
  • black swan
  • naval program
  • advise naval

  • introduction naval
  • naval studies
  • naval intelligence
  • potential capability
  • naval operations

  • understanding capability
  • surrounding capability
  • capability developed
  • including disruptive
  • forces operate


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