Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-8
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A basic strategy for the earth system sciences is outlined, namely, to use the power and consistency of proven model assimilation technology to generate routinely assimilated geophysical data sets for both operational and long-term use and to maintain these data sets in an integrated national geophysical archive system designed to ensure the ready availability of these data sets to the scientific and public policy communities. By extending this technology backward in time to about the beginning of the development of model-based geophysical data in the 1950s through reanalyses with state-of-the-art model assimilation, the consistency and integrity of these data sets will provide information and value (e.g., for the study of climate and global change)
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Currently, several major operational forecast centers produce model-assimilated data sets for the atmosphere as part of their numerical prediction activities. Use of these global-scale data sets as initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models has resulted in significant increases in forecast accuracy.
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Therefore, a model data assimilation analysis of the entire useful climatic record over the past 40 years is essential for removing the impacts of any model biases on the assimilated data sets and producing a temporally and spatially consistent data set for the study of climatic trends. Although such an extended analysis of past data would be a relatively expensive undertaking, the need for tracking and predicting global change in terms of scientific and economic factors justifies the effort.
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New devices and computer software routines for imaging data fields will also facilitate use of model-assimilated data sets by researchers. Large increases in heterogeneous observational data from greatly enhanced ground-based and satellite observing systems in the future will require an expanded use of model assimilation of data and the production of model-assimilated data sets, both for operational and research purposes.
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The operational centers and the larger research community must contribute jointly to the design of these systems to ensure that the needs of the broad community are met. Continuing advances in computer technology and modes of parallel computer operation will permit more sophisticated data assimilation techniques to be used at national forecast centers and laboratories, will allow oceanic and other geophysical model-assimilated data sets to be routinely generated, and will increase the feasibility of reanalyses of long data sets from the past as the state-of-the-art technology requires.
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· Provide for continuing scientific exchange and collaboration among the various groups and individuals engaged in geophysical data assimilation, particularly scientists involved with the Earth Observing System Data and Information System; the national meteorological, oceanographic, and climate centers; and the High Performance Computer and Communications Initiative. · Provide for the generation of routine research-quality, model-assimilated and -tested geophysical data sets to serve a broad range of national endeavors, including climate and global change research and predictions.
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This effort will reanalyze, with a state-of-the-art global- and regional-scale data assimilation model, all atmospheric and oceanic data available since about 1950 in order to produce the best possible, validated, temporally and spatially consistent data sets for the' study of climate and global change. Model biases should be identified and eliminated as far as possible at this time.
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8 FOUR-DIMElISIONAL MODEL ASSIMILATION OF DATA provided for graduate courses and research fellowships in university departments of atmospheric, oceanic, global change, and related earth system sciences. These programs should be explicitly coordinated with related system development, such as EOSDIS, the High Performance Computer and Communications Initiative, and national computer-linked networks.
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