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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment A Workshop Summary (2013) / Chapter Skim
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4 Analytic-Based and Non-Traditional Approaches
Pages 15-25

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From page 15...
... Dr. Rob Axtell, chair, Department of Computational Social Science, Krasnow Institue for Advanced Study, George Mason University, followed with a presentation titled "Robustness and Resilience of Models Involving Social Agents." An abstract of Dr.
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From page 16...
... , finished the panel presentations by focusing on social network analysis. He indicated that most current deterrence tools do not work all that well in the context of state actors leveraging non-state actors, including terrorists.
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From page 17...
... BOX 4-2 A Framework for Strategic Deterrence Analysis Maj Justin Sorice, Air Force Office of Studies and Analyses, Assessments, and Lessons Learned An analytical framework is required to examine the interdependencies of strategies, capabilities and partnerships given planned as well as potential future reductions in the role and number of United States nuclear weapons. This presentation will examine how such a framework can be used to allow the U.S.
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From page 18...
... , Kiernan Group Holdings, provided a presentation titled "The Crafty Bastard Innovation Cycle and Solution Creation Methodology." 1 An abstract of CAPT Kulisch's presentation is found in Box 4-3. Crafty Bastards Game Theory SNA War Gaming Neuro-deterrence ABM Leader Profiling Crowd Sourcing FIGURE 4-1 Characterizing tools, approaches, and methods.
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From page 19...
... BOX 4-3 The Crafty Bastard Innovation Cycle and Solution Creation Methodology CAPT Gail Kulisch (USCG, Ret.) , Kiernan Group Holdings The "crafty bastard" methodology is based on research and case studies which reveal that administrative, bureaucratic structures inhibit design innovation, creating self-induced constraints in a battle against unrestricted adversaries.
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From page 20...
... Another participant noted that, regarding the overall challenge for this workshop, an issue is how we apply neurodeterrence to what is needed for current situations, like headlines about drawing red lines related to Israel and Iran's uranium enrichment. A general issue is how can we use this.
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From page 21...
... TIN models were used in two service wargames and an Office of the Secretary of Defense-led geopolitical stability study to assess the deterrence and nuclear stability effects of different courses of action across a range of operational phases. The results suggest that such models can be used to inform analyses addressing nuclear policy and strategy questions.
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From page 22...
... Dr. Stephen Walker, professor emeritus of political science, Arizona State University, provided a presentation to the workshop titled "Tailored Deterrence and Operational Code Analysis." An abstract of Dr.
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From page 23...
... Stephen Walker, Arizona State University Tailored deterrence focuses on the problem of tailoring effective deterrence strategies to fit the beliefs, personalities, and cultural norms of diverse target populations regarding the exercise of power. The operational code construct refers to the conceptions of political strategy that inform an agent's decisions, tactics, and strategies in escalating or de-escalating conflict situations.
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From page 24...
... and allied national intelligence, coupled with tactical ISR (which was improved expressly for these purposes) , was coupled to NATO exercises designed to elicit Warsaw Pact behaviors in their subsequent exercises, in order both to help validate NATO indicator and warning capabilities and to understand changes in Pact operational concepts.
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From page 25...
... . Since its inception in 2002, ASCO has initiated TAP projects to explore productive areas of threat anticipation, including workshops to identify and acquire relevant expertise from the social science, computational science, and other communities; development of conceptual computer models to better understand and anticipate asymmetric threats; and staff activities involving networking with universities and other federal and private sector organizations to survey the current thinking on these issues and leverage outside expertise.
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