Performance Metrics for the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture Abbreviated Version (2013) / Chapter Skim
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4 A Notional Strategic Planning Example with Metrics
4 A Notional Strategic Planning Example with Metrics
Pages 37-48
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To demonstrate feasibility, a notional strategic planning example with outcome-based metrics is presented in this chapter and a new analysis framework is presented in Chapter 5. The committee found the development of the notional example to be difficult.
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Often, strategic planning is guided by available data rather than by determining a logical set of goals and objectives to address the mission. In developing the notional example, the committee considered the broad challenge of protecting the nation from radiological and nuclear terrorist attacks and outlining a vision, a mission, and a set of goals and objectives that would directly support that broader challenge.
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For example, the metric "Improve the probability of detecting an attempt to bring RN materials into the United States" could have proxy measures such as "Percent of POEs [Ports of Entry] with RN portals" or "number of interdictions of attempts to transport RN materials." To be useful for this purpose, however, proxies must have a direct relationship to the goals and objectives.
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40 GLOBAL NUCLEAR DETECTION FIGURE 4-1 Notional example of a GNDA strategic plan outlined in Box 4-1. A vision, mission statement and a set of goals and objectives are presented.
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A NOTIONAL STRATEGIC PLANNING EXAMPLE WITH METRICS 41 of the objectives are within the scope of the GNDA. Cells that have been filled in are within the scope of the GNDA; those not filled in are outside the scope of the GNDA.
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« bjective: Detect RN materials out of regulatory control by layers of O detection: outside of the United States, at the border of the United States, and Metric: Probability of detecting an attempt to bring RN materials into the United States at ports of entry (POEs) attack.
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. The challenges associated with gathering, quantifying, and measuring this information are discussed in the following paragraphs.
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reviews the past 30 years of research on the impact of capital punishment on murder rates. The committee that authored this report notes the importance of understanding the perception of potential penalties by would-be murderers: "It is not possible to interpret empirical evidence of the relationship of homicide rates to sanctions without understanding how potential murderers perceive sanction regimes" (NRC, 2012a, p.
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Other metrics identified in the notional example above could be combined and linked directly to increased costs of planning an attack and, as such, provide an indirect measure of the effectiveness of deterrence. 4.3 analysis of notional example The committee provides an analysis of the notional example's strategic plan and metrics using the approach described in Chapter 3.
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None of the notional metrics were developed purely for management; however, one such metric would be "the percent of existing nuclear detection capabilities currently integrated into a model." 4.3.2 Clear Connection to Consequences and Options As discussed in Section 3.1, the most important criteria for metrics are that they be outcome-based and broadly focused. Figure 4-2 is the "scopeversus-type" matrix (introduced in Chapter 3)
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Furthermore, in the absence of a GNDA design document, the committee suggests that the strategic plan clearly describes the GNDA's design goals and how it enhances the otherwise disparate detection activities of GNDA partner agencies.
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. Therefore, the advice provided should be applicable regardless of the specific planning approach that the GNDA partners may decide to adopt should they proceed with implementation of the recommendations within this report.
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