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Performance Metrics for the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture Abbreviated Version (2013) / Chapter Skim
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5 GNDA Analysis Framework
Pages 49-58

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From page 49...
... The first section provides an overview of current analysis approaches for complex technological systems. The final section introduces the committee's recommended GNDA analysis framework using the notional metrics described in the preceding chapter.
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From page 50...
... For obvious reasons, the United States cannot conduct a full- or even a partial-scale nuclear war to demonstrate the capability to deter adversaries. As a result, since the 1980s the United States has relied on a combination of modeling, war gaming, component testing, conventional system tests, reliability testing, red teaming, exercises, and technical studies to develop and evaluate the capabilities of its nuclear forces and to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent.
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From page 51...
... Modeling and analysis have been used to develop and evaluate the overall effectiveness of the nuclear war plan and limited nuclear options, including the extensive Stockpile Stewardship Program that certifies nuclear arsenal readiness (NRC, 2012c)
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From page 52...
... The BMD mission also has a critical deterrence component: The United States wants to deter an adversary from attacking with nuclear ballistic missiles. The major challenges for analyzing the effectiveness of the BMD architecture involve characterizing adversary objectives, the operational performance of the adversary ballistic missiles and warheads, and the performance of the U.S.
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From page 53...
... 5.2  Proposed GNDA Analysis Framework The committee's proposed GNDA Analysis Framework provides a process for evaluating the notional metrics of the GNDA strategic plan. The framework provides an analytic capability to evaluate GNDA effectiveness and inform cost-effective resource decisions.
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From page 54...
... 5.2.1  Alignment with Strategic Planning and Resource Decisions One of the key purposes of an analysis framework is to provide iterative assessments to inform the GNDA strategic planning process. Strategic planning is not part of the analysis framework per se but it is connected to it in two ways: the framework can be used to evaluate and prioritize potential resource decisions, and the metrics' output from the models can be used to demonstrate the effectiveness of previously made resource decisions.
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From page 55...
... Once a resource decision has been made and implemented, the framework's metrics evaluate progress made toward meeting the strategic plan's goals and objectives. 5.2.2 GNDA Architecture Definition The GNDA Architecture Definition is a description of a set of detection and reporting capabilities (or resource allocations)
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From page 56...
... 5.2.5 Validation and Verification Activities V&V play a critical role in the proposed analysis framework: validation ensures that the GNDA models capture the architecture and detection capabilities as they exist and verification confirms that the model is correctly performing the calculations that it claims to be performing. Indepen
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From page 57...
... Although the GNDA architecture design, models and metrics cannot be operationally evaluated (similar to BMD and strategic nuclear defense) , specific parts can be validated using operational and developmental test data, red team assessments, exercises, and pilot activities.
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From page 58...
... Evaluating the effectiveness of the overall GNDA requires an integrated and continuous model-based scenario testing, red teaming, analysis, peer review, and training supplemented with intelligence awareness. Recommendation 2.1: DNDO should develop a new GNDA Analysis Framework similar to the framework proposed by the committee.
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Key Terms

  • water security
  • gnda analysis
  • gnda architecture
  • resource decisions
  • gnda effectiveness

  • security office
  • missile defense
  • architecture definition
  • gnda strategic
  • strategic nuclear

  • proposed analysis
  • potential resource
  • nuclear war
  • ballistic missile
  • military planning

  • models exist
  • overall gnda
  • national missile
  • security programs
  • force structure

  • ballistic missiles
  • adversary objectives
  • overall effectiveness
  • red teaming
  • gnda resource

  • proposed gnda
  • nuclear security
  • national nuclear
  • nuclear defense
  • nuclear forces


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