Lessons Learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science Summary of a Workshop (2013) / Chapter Skim
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6 The Role of Cost Estimates, Technical Evaluations, and Budget Projections in Prioritizing Missions
6 The Role of Cost Estimates, Technical Evaluations, and Budget Projections in Prioritizing Missions
Pages 42-55
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From page 42... ...
Spence, Director, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire; 2013 Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey INTRODUCTORY REMARKS Panel moderator Steven Battel began his introductory remarks by reviewing the origins of the CATE process used in the three most recent decadal surveys: New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 1 Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, 2 and Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. 3 The term CATE was devised by Brian Dewhurst, 1 National Research Council (NRC)
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From page 43... ...
The SOT for the 2011 planetary science decadal study was even more prescriptive in that it required that "the NRC [National Research Council] should include resources for independent and expert cost analysis support to ensure that all flight mission cost estimates can be meaningfully intercompared and are as accurate as possible given the varying maturity of project concepts and other recognized uncertainties." 9 Whereas, the SOT for the 2013 solar and space physics decadal study only noted that "the NRC will include resources for independent, expert cost analysis support, which will be used when appropriate to improve cost estimations, expose and bound uncertainties, and facilitate cost comparisons among missions with varying heritage and technical maturity." 10 Although the CATE process was implemented in both of these surveys, the finer details of how it was applied evolved as required to 4 The term "mission" is used in a generic sense throughout this chapter to indicate not just spacecraft missions but all implementation activities including, ground-based facilities, laboratory analyses, theoretical studies, numerical modeling, and any other research activities necessary to address a specific scientific activity.
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From page 44... ...
During their discussion, the moderator and panelists talked about their experience with and opinions on the following topics: • Tailoring the CATE process to serve future decadal surveys, • Accommodating evolving science requirements in the CATE process, • The role of mission advocates in the CATE process, • Implementing the CATE as an integrated, iterative process, and • The CATE as a component of an unconstrained scientific process. Tailoring the CATE Process to Serve Future Decadal Surveys Steven Battel began the panel discussion by asking Randall Friedl how the CATE process could be tailored to optimally serve future decadal surveys, given the intrinsic differences between the various science disciplines.
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From page 45... ...
His suggestions were as follows: • The maturity of science requirements is the primary factor in determining the optimal CATE approach to be followed; • A bounding strategy is most suited to new mission concepts, large portfolios of medium-class missions, and smaller, competed mission classes; • A pricing strategy is most suited to more mature flagship missions that may have been prioritized in earlier decadal surveys; • Task statements for decadal surveys should give clear direction on CATE approaches to be applied; and • The next decadal study in Earth science and applications from space should obtain point design estimates for selecting first-, second-, and third-tier missions from the 2007 decadal survey prior to its initiation. On the basis of these ground rules, Friedl suggested that the SOT for the next decadal survey in Earth science and applications from space include the following language: "The committee will recommend a prioritized list of missions whose costs are bounded by a consistent set of independent and expert cost analysis.
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From page 46... ...
The second mechanism Bookbinder suggested involves a feedback process during the mission-evaluation phase of a survey prior to the CATE process. Bookbinder noted that previous speakers have emphasized that decadal surveys remain relevant over time -- meaning they need to retain flexibility in how they select missions -- and not devote too much time and effort engineering mission concepts beyond that needed to give reasonable cost estimates.
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From page 47... ...
The Role of Mission Advocates in the CATE Process Steven Battel then asked Scott Hubbard if the CATE process should be modified to allow advocates to respond with mission design descopes prior to completion of the decadal survey process. Hubbard began his response by reminding the audience that the SOT for the 2011 planetary science decadal survey was quite explicit.
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From page 48... ...
to look for cheaper alternatives to the full-up JEO mission. One of the three resulting studies identified an approach 14 For details concerning the implementation of the CATE process in the context of the most recent planetary science decadal survey, see NRC, Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, 2011, pp.
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From page 49... ...
By this he meant that it was not clear what the appropriate scope of individual mission concepts could be until the committee had assembled a complete, notional program in light of realistic budget projections for the coming decade. Ideally, decadal surveys should commence with a clear understanding of likely future budget and a clear articulation to the community of realistic notional mission sizes.
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From page 50... ...
Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the Government Accountability Office do not believe that the space and Earth science communities, acting through the decadal survey process, understand the mission concepts they are recommending sufficiently well to determine their ultimate cost. Given the state of the economy and ever increasing pressures on budgets, it is not unexpected that there are calls for more accountability in the decadal surveys.
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From page 51... ...
By analyzing each of the alternatives with CATE, a survey committee could build up a better understanding of the interplay between cost and technical risks associated with achieving a specific set of science goals and, thus, have a firmer basis for their decision-making processes. The events that occurred following the release of the 2011 planetary science decadal survey, as related by Scott Hubbard, were very useful, in Bearden's opinion, because they forced the community to think about how they could get priority missions inside a particular cost box.
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From page 52... ...
Finally, Jay Bookbinder noted that an iterative approach to both the mission study and CATEs -- for instance, low-fidelity studies followed by higherfidelity studies of the most promising concepts -- might speed up the mission-evaluation process. Effect of CATE on the Decadal Survey Process An audience member said that the CATE process distorts the decadal surveys by producing the wrong costs for the wrong missions.
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From page 53... ...
Finally, Steven Battel added that his experience on two recent decadal surveys is that the CATE process does perturb the study process, but this perturbation related to the schedule rather than prioritizing the wrong mission concepts. The time-consuming nature of the CATE forces the survey committee to make decisions earlier in the study process than perhaps would be optimal.
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From page 54... ...
Another audience member asked if the events since the release of the 2011 planetary science decadal survey have demonstrated that the previously expressed concern about the potential distortion of the decadal process by "CATEing" the wrong missions is, for at least that survey, unfounded. Subsequent examination of NASA's descoped versions of the survey's high-priority Mars and Europa missions by the relevant community-based analysis groups had indicated that they are capable of addressing most, if not all, of the respective decadal science goals at substantially reduced cost.
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From page 55... ...
At this point SSB Director Michael Moloney took the opportunity to publically thank Marcia Rieke and Steven Battel for their role in helping the NRC design the CATE process. He also thanked David Bearden and Russell Persinger and their colleagues at the Aerospace Corporation for going above and beyond the call of duty in their role of implementing the CATE process in the context of three decadal surveys.
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