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The Future of the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Relationship (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: The Sensitivity of Strike Results to Preattack Planning Factors
Pages 59-62

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From page 59...
... A specific case is considered in this appendix, where it is possible to derive analytic formulas for the optimal attack tactics' the value damaged, and the variance in value damaged. The case is one where values can be assigned to targets and the distribution of target value obeys a simple power law: VCUm = (x/T)
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From page 60...
... is the anticipated value of the single-shot probability of target survival' whereas Pi is the actual value. For various values of Q.' attack efficiency is shown as a function of P
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From page 61...
... to provide damage comparable with the statistical reassignment Case 2. For comparison, Case 4 shows that the ability to reallocate specific surviving weapons to the most valuable 21 targets would enable damage to be maintained with 22 surviving weapons rather than the 40+ of Cases la or 2 or the 220+ of Case 3a.
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Key Terms

  • attack size
  • strike results
  • total target
  • perfect planning
  • value damaged

  • surviving weapons
  • statistical reassignment
  • attack planning
  • perfectly planned
  • optimal attack

  • target set
  • planned allocation
  • llnl report
  • analytic formulas
  • target damage

  • target survival
  • extended form
  • force required
  • cumulative value
  • depends strongly

  • target value
  • value obeys
  • fairly insensitive
  • damage depends
  • simple model

  • larger initial
  • initial force
  • effective plan
  • paul chrzanowski
  • simple power


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