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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume II, Technical Papers (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 305-306

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From page 305...
... Espenshade INTRODUCTION Validation experiments of projections from microsimulation models have been relatively rare. Many reasons have been offered for this situation, including the complex nature and multiplicity of microsimulation calculations, the generally low priority given to assessments of error and sources of uncertainty, and the time pressures that usually surround policy debates and analyses.
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From page 306...
... These projections are especially relevant because they are frequently used to calibrate microsimulation models. The nature of cohort component population projections is described in the next section.
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Key Terms

  • population projections
  • population projection
  • projection models
  • sensitivity analysis
  • cohort component

  • population size
  • microsimulation models
  • baseline population
  • simulation models
  • marital status

  • confidence intervals
  • external validation
  • microsimulation model
  • confidence interval
  • security administration

  • component model
  • simulation model
  • component method


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