Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume II, Technical Papers (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 310-313
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From page 310... ...
Estimation of variance is related to a discussion of confidence intervals and is reserved for the following section. Sensitivity Analysis At one level of understanding, population projections are necessarily valid.
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From page 311... ...
No single component is as clearly dominant as in the projections of the very young and the very old. Alternative assumptions regarding fertility are more important than those regarding mortality or immigration, but the difference is not large.7 It has become common practice in presenting population projections to focus on three series, representing a "best guess" scenario and a high and a low alternative.
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From page 312... ...
population projections by the Bureau of the Census and the Social Security Administration. NOTE: The three lines for each agency represent high, middle, and low scenarios; see text for discussion.
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From page 313... ...
POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 0.7 0.6 o ._ a) {5 a' ~ 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 Bureau of the Census Social Security Administration O 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year 313 , , , 1 2050 2060 2070 2080 FIGURE 2 Old-age dependency ratios projected by the Bureau of the Census and the Social Security Adminis~abon.
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