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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume II, Technical Papers (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 319-324

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 319...
... evaluation of the accuracy of population projections made in the past. Most of the attention below is given to the third approach.
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From page 321...
... The Census Bureau's high and low scenarios assume perfect correlation of high fertility, low mortality, and high immigration. In reality these inputs are not perfectly correlated.
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From page 322...
... This "mixed" model takes a weighted average of expert predictions and information concerning past trends and their variability to develop confidence intervals about the future population. In one such model he determines that the Census Bureau's high and low projections of births are well within a two-thirds confidence interval that is, the actual number of births would be likely to fall between the high and the low estimates less than two-thirds of the time.
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From page 323...
... Beaumont and Isserman's (1987:1007) evaluation of state population projections leads to the opposite conclusion, and they believe the following: 120ne might object that the United Nations projections are not the same as those of the Census Bureau and indeed do not even project the same populations.
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From page 324...
... Someone ought to be willing to make imaginary wagers if so doing will more precisely describe the distribution of future population and so improve investment performance even by a minute Dacron. Despite the need for confidence intervals and probability distributions associated with population projections, many problems remain with the methods considered here.
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Key Terms

  • population projections
  • census bureau
  • population projection
  • projection models
  • population size

  • baseline population
  • confidence intervals
  • population growth
  • future population
  • low projections

  • root mean
  • confidence interval
  • security administration
  • median projections
  • actual population

  • percent confidence
  • ssa projections
  • square error


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