Including Health in Global Frameworks for Development, Wealth, and Climate Change Workshop Summary (2014) / Chapter Skim
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4 Health in the Context of Global Climate Change Scenarios
4 Health in the Context of Global Climate Change Scenarios
Pages 43-60
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From page 43... ...
Health outcomes, social determinants, gross domestic product, and other factors can be both inputs and outputs of climate change scenarios, providing opportunities for collaboration to develop projections that can better inform global development frameworks. OPENING John Balbus, senior advisor for public health at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and co-chair of the Global Environmental Health and Sustainable Development Innovation Collaborative, provided a brief overview of the webinar topic.
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From page 44... ...
Part of that involves understanding what the future world will look like in terms of incidence and prevalence of conditions that convey vulnerability to climate change health impacts, noting that climate change acts as a force multiplier or as an additional stressor on top of existing stressors to global populations. Balbus noted that the scientific community is engaging in international efforts to understand the impacts of climate change broadly, and the health impacts of climate change more specifically to improve existing models.
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From page 45... ...
Quantification of the storylines resulted in estimated emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfur that were used as input into climate models to project changes in patterns of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. Ebi noted that the four main storylines were developed along two axes: one axis represents the extent to which a future world is focused on economic or environmental issues, and the second axis represents the extent to which a future world is focused on global or regional issues (see Figure 4-1)
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From page 46... ...
Thhe four scenario o "families" aree illustrated, veery simplisticallly, as bran nches of a two-dimensional trree. In reality, tthe four scenarrio families shaare a spacee of a much higgher dimension nality given thhe numerous asssumptions needded to defin ne any given scenario s in a particular p modeeling approachh.
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From page 47... ...
This causses an imbalannce in the energy cyclee that, in turrn, impacts tthe water cyccle, atmospheeric circulattion, and oceann currents, leaading to changees in weather aand climate. T The unified d earth system m model also o represents m more than juust the physiccal atmosppheric and oceeanic processees, including representationns of the globbal carbon cycle, dynam mic vegetation, atmospheric cchemistry, andd ocean biologgy.
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From page 48... ...
During the past several years, discussions between the integrated assessment community and climate modelers initiated the process of developing a new set of scenarios. Instead of following the kind of process used in developing the SRES, the integrated assessment modeling community and climate change modelers agreed to first determine a limited number of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the year 2100.
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From page 49... ...
This approach allows scientists to ask new questions, such as what would happen if a world on track for 6.0 watts per meter squared in 2100 interacts with a world that is trying to achieve sustainable development versus a world that is more regionally focused. Or, what could be the impacts in a world continuing current development trends if there is a large or smaller amount of climate change.
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From page 50... ...
Rep printed with per ermission from Springer Sciennce and Business Media. Eaach SSP inclu udes a brief narrative n that offers a broaad vision of tthe future,, including lim mited inform mation about hhealth, and quuantification of populaation, urbanizzation, rates of o technologiical change, iincome, hum man develoopment index x, income disttribution, andd more.
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From page 51... ...
would be a regionalized world with weak international institutions, said Ebi. The burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes would be expected to rise, with greater challenges to controlling malaria, diarrheal disease, and other public health problems that require global collaboration through international bodies like the World Health Organization.
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From page 52... ...
The results yielded a high-priority list of variables considered to be the most important for understanding climate impacts: per capita income, quality of governance, extreme poverty, coastal population, water availability, urbanization, educational attainment, and innovation capacity. More specific and focused scenarios may require additional elements.
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From page 53... ...
projected future income based on observed data for inequality of per capita income across countries, the models persisted in showing a rapid reduction of inequality across countries in these scenarios (see Figure 4-4a)
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54 INCLUDING H EALTH IN GLOBBAL FRAMEWORRKS a b FIGUR RE 4-4 Future income i scenarios based on obbserved data forr inequality of pper capita gross g domestic product (GDP)
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From page 55... ...
There are currently no quantitative scenarios that reflect the phenomena that matter the most for climate change projections, but hard work is being done to implement them. Over the next few years, Levy expects to see high-quality, usable quantitative indicators on income, spatial population, inequality, governance, and health.
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From page 56... ...
For example, the health impact of local pollution depends partly on global choices described in scenarios, such as oil price, availability of electric cars. But it also depends on local choices such as urban forms and availability of public transport.
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From page 57... ...
Future Earth is an organization that is replacing others moving forward, including the International Human Dimension Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, and others that have focused on various aspects of what needs to be understood about how the future will evolve and interact with global environmental change.
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From page 58... ...
Ebi noted that the agricultural sector is developing scenarios as well, and there could be an opportunity in working with them on issues like food security. Linking Social Determinants of Health and Climate Change Scenarios A member of the audience asked how the social determinants of health should be approached around or within climate change scenarios, and to what extent are the social determinants of health assumed in the scenarios (versus something that is an output of the models)
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From page 59... ...
Health and other factors, such as GDP, can be both inputs and outputs, which makes collaboration among sectors vital. Predicted Health Impacts of Climate Mitigation Initiatives The final question from the audience asked if models can predict the health impacts of major kinds of climate mitigation initiatives, policies, or movements; e.g., if the United States stopped using gasoline to power vehicles in favor of hydrogen fuel.
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From page 60... ...
60 INCLUDING HEALTH IN GLOBAL FRAMEWORKS O'Neill, B
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