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The Power of Simple Models in Manufacturing
Pages 215-223

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From page 215...
... Another contributing factor is the increasing power and availability of computers. With this increasing capability comes the opportunity to compute what we never before could compute, and this opportunity presents compelling temptations to see how much we can do.
From page 216...
... Specific models usually fall into one of these distinct categories, although one occasionally encounters hybrid models that cut across the boundaries. All of these modeling techniques have had their capabilities extended greatly over the past few decades.
From page 217...
... If the time required to collect the data necessary to run a model is excessive, or the expertise required to interpret the results is unavailable, or the time required to obtain results exceeds the time available for considering the decision, then the model cannot be of much help. THE POWER OF SIMPLICITY Turning from these criticisms of complex models to the advantages of simple models, I propose the following generalization.
From page 218...
... A manufacturing unit adds value to product units while consuming time. Each of these terms is defined in such a way that the same term may apply at both atomic and aggregate levels.
From page 219...
... For example, a transport unit changes the physical location of product units while consuming time, whereas a storage unit is passive with respect to value and location, but consumes time. A manufacturing unit may contain other manufacturing units, as well as transport units and storage units.
From page 220...
... Where should we focus our efforts? Define the "value improvement rate" to be the amount of value increase that a product unit receives by passing through a manufacturing unit divided by the time required.
From page 221...
... 221 interpretation applies at any level of aggreA typical process improvement program will focus on the technology or management involved in just one of the manufacturing units. For example, a just-in-time production control program might be introduced in the unit represented in the second box in Figure 2 perhaps a plant or one department of a plant.
From page 222...
... However, the picture gives strong visual confirmation of the notion that working on one subsystem does not necessarily improve the performance of the whole system. If Figure 2 or 5 represented a complete system, it would be apparent that any effort to improve the system should go into reducing the time lost in transit or in storage between the four subunits, since each of these has an individual slope that is better than the overall slope.
From page 223...
... Having an arsenal of such simple models available, along with the more detailed techniques that have already been developed, would allow a more rational choice of appropriate complexity. The simple models could be used in preliminary studies, perhaps to identify key issues or to justify further investigations.


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