The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions (2014) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Rationale for Continued Arctic Research
2 Rationale for Continued Arctic Research
Pages 23-32
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Understanding how a fast-warming Arctic may contribute to increased extreme weather events will help to evaluate risk outside the Arctic. These and many other key questions have been identified over the years in various planning documents and other efforts to guide Arctic research.
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. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming is that winter warming exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4, according to model simulations (Bintanja and van der Linden, 2013)
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We also know we have not sufficiently sampled much of the Arctic during the long winter darkness. The observed Arctic impacts attributed to climate change are summarized in Table 2.1.
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in mid-latitude regions, exemplify Arctic amplification of global climate change. Higher temperatures in all parts of the Arctic indicate a response to global change rather than to natural regional variability.
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Warming promotes northward habitat migration and changing seasonal conditions, leading to new hotspots and dead zones in biological productivity, but we do not know where or when. We know that some of the thresholds we are reaching and crossing have analogs deep in the geological record, such as life in a previously ice-diminished and more acidic Arctic Ocean, and we need to explore those system circumstances and responses.
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. Increased winter minimum river flow (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change)
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. Food Production and Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples, beyond effects of economic and Livelihoods sociopolitical changes (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change)
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Know We Need to Know • Arctic is warming, more warming is likely • Identify biodiversity hotspots • Changes in phase (increased ice loss/ • Greater understanding of teleconnections increased permafrost thawing) • Adaptation and mitigation strategies • Albedo reduction, reduced summer sea ice • Sustainable development and resilience extent and thickness, reduced snow cover strategies • Reduced glacier mass, leading to increased • Seasonality of Arctic systems sea level rise and changes in hydrologic • Cumulative impacts of environmental and social cycle change • Increased greening • Implications of urbanization • Increased variability and disturbances in • Impact of Arctic change on global climate Arctic systems change • Increased accessibility and activity (e.g., • Impact of ice loss and calving from Greenland on resource exploration, shipping, tourism)
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. Impacts on the health and well-being of Arctic residents from climate change are significant and projected to increase -- especially for many indigenous peoples (high confidence)
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Summertime heating at 71 °N on the central Baffin Island plateau in 2009 was sufficient to produce deep convection with accompanying thunder and lightning, events that were nearly unheard of in earlier decades. Photo credit: Gifford Miller
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