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3 Emerging Questions
Pages 33-110

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From page 33...
... produced this multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for September sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere. The results are displayed as a 5-year running mean.
From page 34...
... Coastal zone issues cut across the emerging research questions in this chapter: the Evolving, Hidden, Connected, Managed, and Undetermined Arctic. In the coastal zone, the terrestrial transitions to the marine.
From page 35...
... The committee considered hundreds of potential emerging questions that emerged from community input received through BOX 3.1  CONTINUED ing coastal lagoons. Similarly, the tidewater glacier ice/ocean/sea ice/sea floor interface has long been known to be critical in determining glacier stability, but warming oceans and diminishing sea ice affect contributions to sea level rise.
From page 36...
... This issue is discussed in greater detail at the end of this chapter. EVOLVING ARCTIC Emerging Questions for the Evolving Arctic E1.
From page 37...
... These and related topics are addressed in emerging questions in this section, as well as in the sections on the Connected Arctic and the Managed Arctic. The rate at which change is occurring may be more important than its magnitude, as both natural and social systems try to match their rate of adaptation to the rate of change.
From page 38...
... Already, ship traffic in the Arctic is increasing with the expanded access due to decreased summer sea ice, bringing with it a concomitant increase in risks of environmental disaster and threats to human safety (Arctic Council, 2009)
From page 39...
... The polar regions actually have a net negative annual average radiation balance; that is, more heat is emitted to space as long wave radiation than is absorbed from solar radiation. The total Earth energy balance must of course equal zero, so that energy deficit is made up by heat transported from lower latitudes, through hydrologic processes of moisture advection (latent heat)
From page 40...
... • How will changing seasonality in sea ice and snow cover affect trophic interactions? • How is the Arctic/Northern Hemisphere hydrologic cycle changing, and how will those changes affect such processes as vegetation change, sea ice forma tion, sea water stratification, cloud properties, the surface energy balance, and potentially the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?
From page 41...
... In particular, the role of indigenous and other local communities, in an era where knowledge networks and consultative processes can play a prominent role in policy formation, is plausibly much greater than ever before. New and emerging research priorities need to focus on the ways that contemporary Arctic communities navigate and shape their evolving circumstances,3 drawing on a tradition of flexibility, resilience, and adaptive capacity in an environment of high natural variability.
From page 42...
... and global scales; and how Arctic communities can best exercise their adaptive capacity (the ability of a system to prepare for stresses and changes so that responses can be developed and implemented to minimize negative impacts in a timely manner)
From page 43...
... In Arctic soils, ice-rich permafrost prevents infiltration of rainfall and snow meltwater, often maintaining a surface moist-to-saturated active layer, and can block the lateral movement of groundwater. But, as permafrost degrades, changes in interactions between surface and groundwater occur that affect the surface energy balance and essential ecosystem processes.
From page 44...
... Important climate feedback processes associated with degrading permafrost include changes in latent, sensible, and radiative heat fluxes as the soils become drier or wetter, as vegetation changes, and as carbon emissions evolve. Marked changes in surface structure and land-surface evolution are anticipated with continued warming in the Arctic.
From page 45...
... In this regard, fundamental questions emerge pertaining to the Arctic Ocean's circulation, including the mechanisms, rates, and variability of its transport pathways, vertical and horizontal mixing processes, and the fate and dispersal of the waters flowing across its surrounding shelves. These processes span a broad spectrum of time (Bönisch and Schlosser, 1995; Schlosser et al., 1995)
From page 46...
... . The stratification of the Arctic Ocean also affects the cycling of nutrients and thus exerts important controls on primary production.
From page 47...
... processes in the North Atlantic Ocean that establish the thermohaline properties and mass transport of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean, (2) the fluxes through the Bering Strait (which depend upon North Pacific Ocean processes)
From page 48...
... This image from August 6, 2012, shows the cyclone centered in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory.
From page 49...
... Even in the absence of winter rain, extreme winter warming events that subsequently expose plants to cold winter air may lead to the loss of overwintering flower buds that will not produce flowers the following summer (Semenchuk et al., 2013)
From page 50...
... How Will Primary Productivity Change with Decreasing Sea Ice and Snow Cover? The concept that increased availability of sunlight to primary producers, either through reduction in sea ice and snow cover in the ocean or through reduction in snow cover on land, will lead to increased primary production seems intuitive.
From page 51...
... . Increased riverine input of nutrients, a consequence of permafrost thawing and release of nutrients, as well as increased advective input of nutrient-rich water from outside the Arctic, may increase ocean euphotic zone primary production (e.g., ACIA, 2005; Holmes et al., 2013)
From page 52...
... As the Arctic evolves, some organisms will succeed and some will fail. There will likely be poleward shifts in major marine and terrestrial biomes, with the Arctic Ocean geographically limiting the shifts of terrestrial species.
From page 53...
... The northern Bering and Chukchi Seas are at present benthically dominated, with much of the ice algal and phytoplankton primary production being used by a rich benthic community (e.g., Campbell et al., 2009; Grebmeier, 2012)
From page 54...
... . Species with value to small local communities may become more available, as already seen with the increased catches of salmon in the northern Chukchi Sea (Carothers et al., 2013)
From page 55...
... . Looking ahead, when summer sea ice is gone and light limitations are lessened in spring through summer and autumn, what will be the next rate-limiting factor that will determine the ecology?
From page 56...
... H7. What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean Basin?
From page 57...
... The frozen, dark, oxygen-deprived environment beneath ice sheets where there is no basal flow, beneath permanent snowbanks, and within permafrost is ideal for the preservation of organic remains and biomolecules (e.g., DNA) that otherwise have poor preservation potential if subaerially exposed.
From page 58...
... For up to 9 months landfast sea ice mantles the shallow shelves fringing the Arctic coasts of North America and Eurasia that receive the bulk of the river runoff to the Arctic Ocean. The landfast ice zone also encompasses areas of shallow sub-sea permafrost, so thermodynamic perturbations to this zone may have consequences on methane release from the seabed.
From page 59...
... . Nearly all coastal sites are being impacted by erosion due to changing sea levels, and stronger FIGURE 3.9 A nearly century-old whaling boat in July 2007 along the Beaufort Sea coast near Lonely, Alaska.
From page 60...
... Unique freshwater ecosystems on the ice shelves of Ward Hunt and Ellesmere Islands in the Canadian Arctic have been lost as the ice shelves disintegrate (Mueller et al., 2003) , and freshwater drains to the ocean or mixes with seawater in the absence of ice barriers.
From page 61...
... Process studies are needed to understand how future winters may differ from today. If summer is ice free and the halocline breaks down through strong wind mixing and other processes, what will be the impact on winter ice formation in the central Arctic Ocean (see Chapter 3, Emerging Question E3)
From page 62...
... . Although they are not large reservoirs of stored fresh water, smaller glaciers and ice caps are losing mass at a much faster rate than the GrIS, and as such are currently the dominant cryospheric contributor to sea level rise (IPCC, 2013; Meier et al., 2007)
From page 63...
... Emerging Questions FIGURE 3.10 The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite observed Petermann Glacier and an iceberg calving and drifting downstream, July 16–17, 2012.
From page 64...
... Arctic Ocean sea ice loss during recent decades has exceeded most model projections, leading to an emerging recognition that sea ice may be more sensitive to climate forcing than previously anticipated. In this context, understanding the paleo-record 64
From page 65...
... . Arctic Ocean surface waters reached ~20 °C during the warm Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, ~55 Ma ago (Sluijs et al., 2006)
From page 66...
... ~325 ppmv Mid-Pliocene ~400 ppm Summers 10 to Warm temperature anomalies in both (3.5 Ma) 20 °C warmer; seasons persisted for several hundred winter temperature thousand years, longer than orbital tilt/ anomalies larger than precession cycles; sea level 20 to 40 m summer anomalies higher than present; ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer, possibly year round.
From page 67...
... Is the midPliocene a realistic analog for a future Earth equilibrated with current greenhouse gas concentrations and other forcings? Increased access to the central Arctic Ocean offers opportunities to extract marine sediment cores that are expected to provide a more complete history of Arctic Ocean circulation and surface conditions through the late Cenozoic.
From page 68...
... Naturally Forced Abrupt Climate Change in the Holocene The increasing distance of Earth from the Sun during Northern Hemisphere summer since ~11 ka, caused by Earth's orbital irregularities, led to a decay of Northern Hemisphere incoming solar radiation in the summer, especially across the Arctic. Earth is currently close to its Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minimum, after which summer insolation will begin to slowly increase again.
From page 69...
... with several hiatuses, there is a serious lack of direct evidence to reconstruct the evolution of the Arctic Ocean Basin and its climate history. Understanding the tectonic evolution of the Arctic Basin can in turn inform our understanding of ocean circulation and biogeography, topics that were discussed in greater detail in the previous section on the Evolving Arctic.
From page 70...
... Development of the Amerasian Basin As year-round sea ice continues to retreat in the Arctic Ocean, large areas of the Amerasian Basin are made accessible to a variety of studies, including the ocean floor for its bathymetric features, geological structures, volcanic eruption history, and sedimentation. The geological development and evolution of this basin remains poorly 70
From page 71...
... The High Arctic Large Igneous Province (HALIP) centered on the Alpha and Mendeleev Ridges of the western Arctic Ocean offers a unique opportunity to test the model about its emplacement inasmuch as its eruptive history is recorded in the sedimentary record of Canada Basin.
From page 72...
... C5. How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities?
From page 73...
... . The potential for a causal linkage between Arctic amplification (enhanced warming in the Arctic compared to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere)
From page 74...
... Examples of existing questions: • Which factors are most important in driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over permafrost? • Why do global climate models underestimate the loss of Arctic ice?
From page 75...
... Climate models vary in their simulations of past and future Arctic amplification, leading to uncertainty in the projections of dry static energy transport (Hwang et al., 2011)
From page 76...
... The IPCC AR5 (2013) reports that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated over the 20th century to an average of ~3.2 mm per year from 1993 to 2010.
From page 77...
... As ice sheets lose mass, regions in close proximity to the major ice sheets will experience lower rates of sea level rise, while regions farther afield, particularly the tropical Pacific Ocean, will experience higher rates of sea level rise (Spada et al., 2013)
From page 78...
... , although the oceanic connections or pathways are more physically constrained. The Arctic Ocean affects deep water convection through control on the volume and pathways by which freshwater is exported into the North Atlantic Ocean through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and through Fram Strait (Dickson et al., 2002; Serreze et al., 2006)
From page 79...
... , potentially expanding ocean acidification effects there as well. Outflows from the Arctic Ocean may impact North Atlantic marine communities and biological production.
From page 80...
... . In the western Arctic Ocean, copepod species (Figure 3.14)
From page 81...
... , which serves as effective condensation nuclei for the formation of clouds. As the Arctic Ocean transitions to a seasonally ice-free state, the resulting shifts in distributions and abundance of phytoplankton are likely to influence DMS production.
From page 82...
... . Organizations such as the Inuit Circumpolar Council, the Northern Forum, and the University of the Arctic work against this pattern, making connections BOX 3.4  BERING STRAIT SHIPPING Commercial shipping through the Bering Strait promises both economic gains and threatens cultural and environmental disturbance (Arctic Council, 2009)
From page 83...
... . A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will open new trade routes and facilitate access to untapped oil and natural gas reserves (Gautier et al., 2009)
From page 84...
... MANAGED ARCTIC Emerging Questions for the Managed Arctic M1. How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies?
From page 85...
... Indigenous peoples are taking an ever-greater role in designing and carrying out research in their areas. As noted in Chapter 2, this research has never been more important, as countries and companies look north and as Arctic communities do more and more to shape their own futures.
From page 86...
... Channel widening, in response to increased sediment supply or to increases in bank erosion rates, will also cause flow to spread out and the channel to become shallower. Bank erosion rates may be affected by watershed scale changes in discharge and sediment supply and by local changes in channel flow patterns and bank strength related to permafrost and/or vegetation.
From page 87...
... Emerging Questions BOX 3.5  CONTINUED These images, taken on September 26, 2013 (top) and September 28, 2013 (bottom)
From page 88...
... shape human perception and response? • How will changing government policies, with regard to economic support and resource use, affect the sustainability of Arctic communities?
From page 89...
... Today is a different story. The homes, water and sewer, power grids, schools, runways, and roads of modern Arctic communities have grown through time, and now they impede the ability to respond to a changing landscape.
From page 90...
... During the Cold War, the Iron Curtain extended through the middle of the Bering Strait and also along the Norwegian-Soviet border, separating nations and also indigenous peoples from their relatives and areas of travel and use. The demise of the Soviet Union and the creation of the Arctic Council have helped promote communication and cooperation, and Norway and Russia recently resolved a disputed maritime boundary in the Barents Sea.
From page 91...
... Canada and Russia are pursuing extended continental shelf claims in the Arctic Ocean. Non-Arctic countries take a greater interest in Arctic affairs, raising concerns over their level of influence.
From page 92...
... Under the Law of the Sea Treaty, Arctic nations have the potential to extend territorial claims (Exclusive Economic Zones; see Figure 3.15) to the seabed of extended continental shelves.
From page 93...
... . This research has helped industry to design operations for safety and environmental protection, government agencies to develop appropriate regulations to meet national expectations for careful practices, and Arctic communities to enhance self-determination and to determine how to harness economic development for lasting benefit.
From page 94...
... , along with more frequent and intense storms, permafrost degradation, and sea ice retreat (Small 80° N 120°W USA 80° N CANADA USA Beaufort Sea Inuvialuit Settlement Region Alaska Sachs Harbour Tuktoyaktuk Inuvik Aklavik 140°W Ulukhaktok AR Paulatuk CT IC Yukon CI RC LE Northwest Territories 0 100 km 110°W 120°W Nunavut The Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Tuktoyaktuk. SOURCE: Pearce et al.
From page 95...
... Other new developments include construction of a highway to the town and emergence of plans for new Beaufort Sea oil drilling platforms. As a result of these environmental, social, and economic transformations, the community is experiencing a confluence of impacts ranging from accelerating coastal erosion (Galley et al., 2012)
From page 96...
... THE ARCTIC IN THE ANTHROPOCENE FIGURE 3.15 Exclusive Economic Zones in the Arctic Ocean.
From page 97...
... . 1893 Arctic Drift Stations 1947 Arctic Research Laboratory 1959 Project Chariot Environmental Studies 1970 Western Beaufort Sea Ecological Cruises 1971 Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment 1975 Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program 1979 Marine Mammal Monitoring 1980 Oil Industry Science 1997 Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic 1998 Shelf Basin Interactions Project 2004 Russian–American Long-Term Census of the Arctic 2005 Government and Industry Science are increasing.
From page 98...
... . Industries and land/resource management agencies that need a 50- to 100-year planning horizon would need to address a new Arctic normal of changed plant and animal species, a mostly open Arctic Ocean, and changed Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns.
From page 99...
... What Benefits and Risks Are Presented by Geoengineering and Other Large-Scale Technological Interventions to Prevent or Reduce Climate Change and Associated Impacts in the Arctic? With the Arctic headed for long-term declines in glacier and sea ice, some have proposed turning toward geoengineering activities that would reduce ice loss or potentially even allow ice to be restored (MacCracken et al., 2013)
From page 100...
... Further, approaches that address regional problems, such as seeding clouds with sea salt to increase their brightness over Arctic ice (e.g., Caldeira and Wood, 2008; Wood and Ackerman, 2013) , face limitations in our ability to understand and model key phenomena (Fyfe et al., 2013)
From page 101...
... understanding of Arctic climate systems, particularly in the areas of cloud–radiation interactions, biogeochemistry, and Arctic teleconnections; (2) Arctic social, environmental, and economic studies that address technological effectiveness in the context of both actual and perceived risks to Arctic natural systems and peoples; and (3)
From page 102...
... These three elements are also questions related to the things we know we know and the things we know we don't know. The committee was tasked with exploring "how agency decision makers might balance their research programs and associated investments (e.g., balancing work done to respond to urgent global change concerns versus work to advance fundamental knowledge and discovery)
From page 103...
... 18) Creative new ways to crowd-source Arctic monitoring also need support,8 along the model of Google working with the Centers for Disease Control to collect information on the locations of people conducting online searches for flu symptoms, to give hospitals warnings for where the next flu outbreak is likely to be.9 For example, working with commercial interests, ground truthing data for satellite observations of sea ice conditions in marginal ice zones could be tracked with cruise ships and other ships of opportunity.
From page 104...
... Depending on one's location in the Arctic, priorities may differ according to specific local economic, environmental, cultural, political, and other conditions. Furthermore, the committee is unwilling to suggest that any of the emerging questions in this report is "low priority," as all have come from extensive input from the research community and lengthy committee discussion.
From page 105...
... The emerging questions can also be arranged by spatial scale (y-axis) to highlight geographic scope (Figure 3.18c)
From page 106...
... How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover? E6: Species distribution.
From page 107...
... What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean Basin? C1: Jet stream.
From page 108...
... A failure to address emerging questions in a timely fashion and with an appropriate suite of expertise may undermine our ability to mitigate and adapt to change by increasing the risk of: (1) making decisions based on faulty and/or outdated information (especially for those questions that have direct applications in the short term; Figure 3.18a)
From page 110...
... Southeast coastline of Greenland between 62.5 and 65.5 degrees north. Photo credit: Perry Spector


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