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1 Introduction: What Is Microbial Forensics and Why Is It Important?
Pages 7-34

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From page 7...
... The unlawful use of biological agents poses substantial dangers to individuals, public health, the environment, the economies of nations, and global peace. It also is likely that scientific, political, and media-based controversy will surround any investigation of the alleged use of a biological agent, and can be expected to affect significantly the role that scientific information or evidence can play.
From page 8...
... The workshop also was designed to increase awareness of microbial forensics among the members of the larger international scientific communities and to engage these communities in the development of a plan on how to address scientific challenges. An international ad hoc committee was appointed by the NAS's National Research Council to organize the meeting; brief committee member biographies can be found in Appendix A
From page 9...
... The report is not meant to, nor can it, provide a detailed roadmap for the international development of microbial forensics, but rather elucidates the major issues highlighted at the workshop that the committee believes need to be addressed for the global development of the science of microbial forensics. For the purposes of this project, the committee chose breadth over depth.1 The committee also gave particular attention to those areas, such as increased scientific knowledge about microbial communities and common standards and protocols for analysis, which would benefit from international cooperation and collaboration.
From page 10...
... published a now classic compilation of cases from 1900 to 2000 of the illicit use of biological agents by criminals and terrorists. His definition of "bioterrorism" is that it is "assumed to involve the threat or use of biological agents by individuals or groups motivated by political, religious, ecological, or other ideological objectives." He clearly noted, however, that "most individuals and groups who have used biological agents had traditional criminal motives." He believes that it is, therefore, essential to separate the clearly criminal perpetrators from those with political agendas, whether the motive is sectarian, religious, or ecological.
From page 11...
... Microbial forensics seeks to produce reliable conclusions quickly to protect public health and with sufficient validity and quality to serve law enforcement and policy purposes. In microbial forensics, law enforcement may partner with scientists from microbiology, genetics, public health, agriculture, and many other disciplines to identify and characterize pathogens, or their toxins, implicated in biological events.
From page 12...
... Meeting these challenges will increase the value of microbial forensics by providing "leaps" in value, confidence, and timeliness for critical decision making and will advance other related disciplines. In the event of a suspected biological attack, leaders would have questions about the identity and source of the biological threat that intelligence, public health, law enforcement, and forensics must try to answer (see Box 1-2A)
From page 13...
... These parties will share the same questions as national leaders, but they also can have many additional questions, particularly regarding the accuracy, reliability, validity, credibility, and defensibility of scientific evidence. They may also have information about the likelihood of evidence being accepted and of ways in which different actors might attempt to manipulate information for political reasons.
From page 14...
... However, according to Murch, microbial forensics cannot yet claim that degree of certainty and in many cases may never reach such specificity. In addition, the standard for attribution required in court may be different from the standard required to drive a policy decision.
From page 15...
... to support a finding of guilt or innocence. Because the information generated by forensic methods is to be used by law enforcement in litigation, the goals of these methods differ from those of traditional research.
From page 16...
... samples are performed with applicable discrimination and resolution; analyses are reliable and repeatable, with clearly defined error rates or defined limitations; and the process yields interpretable, probative results that can be communicated and supported. The ideal forensic science system would comprise the elements in Box 1-3B and enable the marshaling of appropriate scientific methods, tools, equipment, infrastructure, and personnel to meet the needs of the submitter and stakeholders.
From page 17...
... As noted above, the need for a strong union and dynamic collaboration between law enforcement and public health to investigate possible bioattacks from event outset to post-event was recognized early in the development of microbial forensics. Public health, infectious disease medicine, and law enforcement investigations all need to establish whether an event is deliberate, accidental, or natural.
From page 18...
... , microbial forensics deals with myriad organisms, including viruses, bacteria, fungi, parasites, and the toxins some of these organisms produce. The vectors by which infectious diseases are spread and the reservoirs in which they reside might also be of importance.
From page 19...
... There are many event scenarios for which we are ill prepared to respond effectively or investigate using microbial forensics. These include introducing a highly aggressive "new strain" of influenza virus during flu season, various scenarios introducing biological threats into agricultural animal populations or crops, and attacks employing pathogens that have been engineered to suggest they originate from a source other than the actual source.
From page 20...
... Box 1-4 describes a hypothetical scenario of an outbreak of unknown cause in a country with no indigenous investigative microbial forensics capability, and little communication occurs between law enforcement and public health. Although other countries may be able to help, they have limited microbial forensics capabilities to perform the necessary analyses.
From page 21...
... Microbial forensics attribution efforts appear to rule out other countries with which the United States has tense relationships and to rule in the threatening country, but this attribution cannot be confirmed. The United States accuses the suspect country, and seeks U.N.
From page 22...
... •  everal national police agencies in the region have no expertise or support S for microbial forensics; some have minimal capabilities. None have trained or exercised together, though several public health agencies routinely have col laborated.
From page 23...
... The answers would then be sought within a particular set of international frameworks and capabilities. The primary international legal frameworks concerned with the use of biological agents as weapons are the 1925 Geneva Protocol, which prohibits the use of biological and chemical weapons, and the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)
From page 24...
... Piers Millet from the BWC Implementation Support Unit argued that the treaty is a key international platform for addressing challenges in microbial forensics, on both the technical and policy levels. His presentation focused on drivers for enabling and directing advances in microbial forensic capabilities.
From page 25...
... The Security Council shall inform the States Parties to the Convention of the results of the investigation. Article VII Each State Party to this Convention undertakes to provide or support assistance, in accordance with the United Nations Charter, to any Party to the Convention which so requests, if the Security Council decides that such Party has been exposed to danger as a result of violation of the Convention.
From page 26...
... Similar to nuclear forensics, microbial forensics may be used to detect, prevent, and deter 17  The language in the report is "How to strengthen implementation of Article VII, including consideration of detailed procedures and mechanisms for the provision of assistance and cooperation by States Parties" (Biological Weapons Convention, 2011:21)
From page 27...
... has a leading role in facilitating the exchange of information and international collaboration and providing assistance to support law enforcement and assessment of nuclear security vulnerabilities. In contrast, microbial forensics lacks that level of international leadership.
From page 28...
... Many of the capabilities required for detecting and responding to the whole spectrum of natural, intentional, and man-made events are essentially the same. The advantages of the microbial forensics and public health communities working together are that systems created for rare events -- for example, bioterrorism -- may suffer because of lack of use, but those created for addressing natural and accidental outbreaks of infectious disease are likely to be used frequently.
From page 29...
... Inves tigators need on-the-shelf capabilities that can be adapted for a wide variety of circumstances. • Sampling and forensic characterization of any relevant microbial background to provide key context for microbial forensic analy ses, interpretation, communication, and resulting decision mak ing.
From page 30...
... This model is the foundation for identifying key diagnostic features called "canonical characters," one of which is a canonical SNP (canSNP)
From page 31...
... ; sequence errors and uncertainties; criteria for com parisons (match, similar, different, inconclusive) ; and the rigor of expert reasoning, which should include formulating well-defined hypotheses, and testing methods for assessing the weight of microbial forensics evidence.
From page 32...
... Among its key messages: • The law enforcement goal of microbial forensics is "attribution" -- that is, determining who committed the offense. Based on the
From page 33...
... The major difference between the two approaches is that the public health investigation's goal is to manage the public health response and protect the public's health and safety, whereas law enforcement's is to provide safety and security by apprehending and convicting those who committed the attack. • The needs of microbial forensics share many aspects with med icine and public health.
From page 34...
... Developing tools and systems compatible with both rare and common occurrences means that when a rare event does occur, these tools and systems will be ready and detection and response will not be delayed by lack of familiarity with them. These messages are illustrated and developed in the remainder of the report, with a focus on the major scientific, technological, and policy and process issues that need to be addressed to develop the field of microbial forensics.


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