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Evaluation Design for Complex Global Initiatives Workshop Summary (2014) / Chapter Skim
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7 Applying Quantitative Methods to Evaluation on a Large Scale
Pages 61-68

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From page 61...
... • Though modeling can be complex, the effort can pay dividends throughout the design, implementation, and evaluation of a large-scale intervention. • Extended cost-effectiveness analysis can look at equity issues such as distributional or financial risk protection issues.
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From page 62...
... Other reasons he heard included that there is not enough time or money, and that existing findings and methods are adequate and, therefore, there is no need to evaluate health outcomes. Data for health outcomes can come from a primary data collection effort such as those conducted by the Poverty Action Lab and the Institute for Poverty Action or by national programs such as the Mexican Seguro Popular evaluation.
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From page 63...
... Doing so would require some up-front investment, he said, but there could be substantial downstream reward given the much lower cost of collecting data in a health registry compared to the cost of recruiting participants for a clinical trial. MATHEMATICAL MODELING AS A TOOL FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION Charlotte Watts, head of the Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group and founding director of the Gender, Violence, and Health Centre in the Department for Global Health and Development at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, began her presentation with a brief discussion of how mathematical modeling can be used for an evaluation.
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From page 64...
... Disease transmission modeling is also useful when the goal is to estimate broader, dynamic benefits of an intervention on subsequent chains of transmission among people not directly reached by the intervention (for example, behavior change that might have resulted in averted infections) and for obtaining estimates of cumulative, long-term benefits of infections averted for the purpose of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses.
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From page 65...
... Mathematical modeling "is dependent on good data and strong collaborations with programs," she said, adding, "We could be using modeling far more than we are currently, both to inform the design and planning of programs, as well as for evaluation." She noted, too, that the most effective approach to bringing mathematical modeling into program activities is to involve mathematicians at the outset in a multidisciplinary evaluation team, in part to identify the data that will be needed to inform the model and be collected as part of the evaluation strategy.
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From page 66...
... These economic outcome measures revolve around adding to the evidence base for equity and financial risk protection for the users of services. Nugent noted that previous incarnations of the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries program were instrumental in advancing understanding of the economic aspects of health and what economic information is useful to inform health decisions.
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From page 67...
... They have to go together to really be able to talk about what you get out of a policy of HPV vaccination." The starting point for this analysis is the introduction of the technology and the policy of a government subsidy for HPV vaccination and a set of expected impacts, measured by the number of cancer deaths averted; household expenditures, measured by cancer treatment expenditures that are averted; and financial risk protection benefits, measured by the relative importance of treatment expenditures to the household budget. These effects were measured by income quintile, but Nugent explained that they could have been measured by urban versus rural status or male versus female to see if the policy favors one sex over the other.
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From page 68...
... Nugent emphasized the importance of thinking broadly about value questions in health resource allocations. Value for money can mean different things to different people.
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Key Terms

  • financial risk
  • risk protection
  • quantitative methods
  • global health
  • control priorities

  • final outcomes
  • hiv prevalence
  • provide health
  • infectious disease
  • health decision

  • demographic surveillance
  • watts noted
  • surveillance sites
  • economic outcomes
  • randomized trial

  • adult mortality
  • countries program
  • treatment expenditures
  • watts discussed
  • poverty action

  • diabetes study
  • control cardiovascular
  • protection benefits
  • cardiovascular risk
  • concurrent session

  • outcomes data
  • intensive therapy
  • existing health
  • health initiatives
  • based randomized


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