Pathways to Exploration Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Authorization Act of 2010, which required that the National Academies perform a humanspaceflight study that would review "the goals, core capabilities, and direction of human space flight." The explicit examination of rationales, along with the identification of enduring questions set the task apart from numerous similar studies performed over the preceding several decades, as did the requirement that the committee bring broad public and stakeholder input into its considerations. The complex mix of historical achievement and uncertain future made the task faced by the committee extraordinarily challenging and multidimensional.
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Those that are -- the aspirational rationales related to the human destiny to explore and the survival of the human species -- are also the rationales most tied to the enduring questions. Whereas the committee concluded from its review and assessment that no single rationale alone seems to justify the costs and risks of pursuing human spaceflight, the aspirational rationales, when
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that satisfies the pathway principles defined below is not sustainable with a budget that increases only enough to keep pace with inflation. As shown in Chapter 4, the current program to develop launch vehicles and spacecraft for flight beyond LEO cannot provide the flight frequency required to maintain competence and safety, does not possess the "stepping-stone" architecture that allows the public to see the connection between the horizon goal and near-term accomplishments, and may discourage potential international partners.
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Having considered past and current space policy, explored the international setting, articulated the enduring questions and rationales, and identified public and stakeholder opinions, the committee drew on all this information to ask a fundamental question: What type of human spaceflight program would be responsive to these factors? The committee argues that it is a program in which humans operate beyond LEO on a regular basis -- a sustainable human exploration program beyond LEO.
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The pathway principles will need to be supported by a set of operational decision rules as NASA, the administration, and Congress face inevitable programmatic challenges along a selected pathway. The decision rules that the committee has developed provide operational guidance that can be applied when major technical, cost, and schedule issues arise as NASA progresses along a pathway.
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Given the expense of any human spaceflight program and the substantial risk to the crews involved, it is the committee's view that the only pathways that fit those criteria are ones that ultimately place humans on other worlds. Although the committee's recommendation to adopt a pathways approach is made without prejudice as to which particular pathway might be followed, it was clear to the committee from its independent analysis of several pathways that a return to extended surface operations on the Moon would make substantial contributions to a strategy ultimately aimed at landing people on Mars and would probably provide a broad array of opportunities for international and commercial cooperation.
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Nor can it succeed without a sustained commitment on the part of those who govern the nation -- a commitment that does not change direction with succeeding electoral cycles. Those branches of government -- executive and legislative -- responsible for NASA's funding and guidance are therefore critical enablers of the nation's investment and achievements in human spaceflight, commissioning and financing plans and then ensuring that the leadership, personnel, governance, and resources are in place at NASA and in other federally funded laboratories and facilities to advance it.
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