The Flexible Electronics Opportunity (2014) / Chapter Skim
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2 Assessing the Potential of Flexible Electronics
2 Assessing the Potential of Flexible Electronics
Pages 41-58
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From page 41... ...
Although most flexible electronics products are likely to be produced through roll-to-roll printing processes, some are currently being fabricated on conventional liquid crystal display and microelectronics production lines. 2 Valtion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus (VTT)
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From page 42... ...
According to one account, an e-paper electronic sign in Japan survived the 2011 earthquake and tsunami and continued to "display emergency contact and note information long after other powereddisplays fell dark."5 Flexible electronics devices have enormous potential for use on and in the human body, not only because they enable stretchability, flexibility, and mechanical softness that cannot be achieved with silicon-based technologies, but also because organic electronics devices are more compatible with biological systems than silicon-based alternatives.6 Printed electronics devices will be able to incorporate multiple functions in a single device that are impossible for silicon devices, such as batteries, microphones and speakers, displays, and solar cells. 7 Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs)
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From page 43... ...
Kent Displays, for example, an Ohio-based startup making flexible displays for consumer applications, is producing flexible consumer e-writing products using a roll-to-roll process that has minimized investment and production costs. Although a traditional liquid crystal display manufacturing plant requires investments of a billion dollars or more, the Kent Displays facility was built with capital investments of several million dollars.10 8 Jeffrey D
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From page 44... ...
Potential Eco-friendliness Organic electronic products are expected to lead to more energy-efficient displays and other electronic devices, and inexpensive and highly versatile organic photovoltaics will enhance the ability of society to expand the use of renewable forms of energy not reliant on fossil fuels.11 A recent white paper released by the annual Chemical Sciences and Society Summit, which convenes "some of the best minds in chemical research from around the world," observed that [a] s chemists continue to study and improve their understanding of the electronic behavior of organic materials, engineers will be able to build devices that last longer and that are recyclable or perhaps even biodegradable.12 Although this prediction may or not be borne out by events, the adoption of o rganic electronics is likely to reduce E-waste and other environmental problems, such as the current reliance on rare-earth metals such as indium, the extraction of which sometimes results in environmental degradation.13 11 CS3, Organic Electronics for a Better Tomorrow, 16.
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18 NanoMarkets, Flexible Substrate Markets: Special Report for the FlexTech Alliance, April 2012, 3. 19 OE-A, Organic and Printed Electronics, 14.
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22 OE-A, Organic and Printed Electronics, 19. 23 "Army Researchers Creating Electronic Devices with Flexible Screens," The Huntsville Times, March 10, 2013.
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Korea's LG Electronics and Samsung introduced curved OLED 55-inch televisions in 2013, designed to replicate the viewing experience of an IMAX movie.28 The two firms made announcements in 2013 of smartphones with curved displays.29 However, currently available "flexible" displays feature a flexible OLED layer beneath a rigid glass or plastic cover -- the "rollable" screen does not yet exist in commercial application.30 Flexible e-paper displays are being used in e-books for e-readers such as Amazon's Kindle, although sales have declined along with the sales of e-readers.31 Ohio's Kent Displays reports brisk sales of its electronic e-Writer, a paperless erasable writing tablet known as the "Boogie Board" utilizing flexible liquid crystal display technology.32 Flexible organic photovoltaic solar panels have been commercially available since 2010 and are finding applications in 25 "MC10 Develops Stretchable Skin to Monitor Health," Flexible Substrate, November 2012. 26 Peter Harrup, "Stretchable Electronics and Electrics for Electric Vehicles," Flexible Substrate, January 2013.
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From page 48... ...
technology developed by Sony."34 Potential for "User Innovation" The development of future markets for flexible electronics technologies is likely to be substantially influenced by what MIT's Eric von Hippel has termed "user innovation" -- that is, new products developed by users through improvisations on existing products to meet their particular needs, some of which may have much broader potential application.35 If past experience is a guide, users will innovate new products from existing flexible electronics products along a path that is not presently foreseeable. The process is slow in the early stages because "there aren't a lot of users." In that phase, small companies start up, founded by individuals with good user connections, and then eventually big companies come in because, they say, now we have enough information about this market and we'll get into it, maybe by acquiring one of those little companies -- because new we know there's a market of sufficient scale for us.36 MARKET GROWTH Forecasting the future size and growth rates of flexible electronics markets is necessarily an inexact exercise.
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From page 49... ...
39 "Printed, Flexible and Organic Electronics Sees 15.3% CAGR," Printed Electronics World. 40 In 2013, the consultancy IHS Electronics & Media forecast that the global flexible display market alone would reach a value of $67.7 billion by 2023, nearly equivalent to the $76.8 billion forecast by IDTechEx for that year for the entire flexible electronics industry.
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Although based in Europe, it is comprised of more than 200 companies that include firms based in North America, Asia, and Australia representing various segments of the value chain in the field of flexible electronics.46 OE-A publishes periodic applications "roadmaps," prepared with the participation of its membership, which forecast what is seen as the likely evolution of the organic and printed electronics industry.47 (See Table 2-3.) Given the breadth and depth of OE-A's membership, its most recent roadmap, released in June 2013, is likely to reflect current industry views about how the industry's applications will develop in the coming decade.
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applications are likely to become available commercially in the next 1-3 years, such as "intelligent packaging," the most dramatic applications, such as rollable televisions and grid-connected organic photovoltaic systems, may be a decade or more away. OE-A comments that organic electronics technology is still in its early stage; while increasing numbers of products are available and some are in full production, many applications are still in lab-scale development, prototype activities, or early production.48 48 OE-A, Organic and Printed Electronics, 10.
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, ssumed a to be far less costly than silicon and thin-film PV, it was observed that the costs of the latter were falling rapidly and that "by the time we have large scale production of OPV, crystalline silicon PV could be living without subsidies." 50 CHALLENGES Flexible electronics are widely acknowledged to have generated "a great deal of hype," particularly in the years preceding the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008.51 Optimistic forecasts of explosive commercial growth did not materialize.52 New product introductions have been announced but then delayed, sually for technological reasons.53 Lawrence Gasman, founder of the u consultancy anoMarkets LC, commented in early 2013 that "the history of flex N ible displays over the past decade has already been one of the broken promises, mostly because of technological issues, and in 2012, it became apparent that the supposed ‘killer app' for flexible displays probably didn't have as much potential as was once thought."54 Although the financial crisis was a factor affecting the lower than normal rate of commercialization of flexible electronics products, technological hurdles have proven more daunting than was recognized a decade ago. Kenneth Warner, founder of the consultancy Nutmeg Consultants, specializing in displays, commented in November 2013: 49 "Why Plastic Logic Failed -- Despite the E-book Boom," GigaOM, May 17, 2012.
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From page 53... ...
Plastic tends to be permeable and may degrade in demanding environments. Flexible glass may be an alternative but, at present, is expensive, as are other specialized encapsulation alternatives.56 Flexible electronics products such as OLED lighting systems and devices incorporating flexible memory, logic, and battery functions "still need better flexible barrier films to extend their useful lifetimes."57 OE-A declared in its roadmap that "barrier properties of flexible, low-cost encapsulation need to be strongly improved to enhance the lifetime of the devices." 58 Functional Materials Conventional electronic devices are fabricated with conductive elements made of metal or metal oxides on rigid substrates, usually processed at high temperatures.
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However, "many polymers require carcinogenic solvents, including some not allowed in the EU printing industry because of their toxicity."62 Although the extent of the problem of toxicity associated with flexible electronics is not clear, given the incipient state of the industry, a general challenge in flexible electronics is developing polymers that are soluble in nontoxic solvents and "rely on more benign methodologies in general." 63 Manufacturing Hurdles The manufacture of flexible electronics devices offers numerous potential advantages in terms of lower cost and high volume throughput. However, the fabrication of complex flexible electronic devices poses challenges for which solutions have not yet been found and which could delay the widespread commercial introduction of many products.
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In addition, certain process tools and core capabilities presented "challenges," and "the supply chain has not been established."68 64 Nick Colaneri from the Flexible Display Center at Arizona State University recently noted that the heat sensitivity of polymer films required the development of systems for handling them and process steps to avoid exceeding their temperature limits. The Flexible Display Center has developed potential solutions, and he indicates that the first flexible high-resolution displays to enter the commercial market will utilize "materials handling techniques that have been developed to allow use of this existing film transistor fabrication facility." However, he notes, "these techniques are still under intensive development, including the evaluation of the relative merits of different design trade-offs." Nick Colaneri, "Manufacturing Flexible Displays: The Challenges of Handling Plastic," Solid State Technology, May 1, 2013.
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From page 57... ...
, "in many cases the performance is not as high as their non-printed counterparts and therefore businesses are leveraging their other characteristics, including potential for low cost, large-area coverage and flexibility."70 Current flexible displays "are almost always compromises on visual performance."71 The vast preponderance of government financial support for flexible electronics that is catalogued in this report is flowing toward research projects to address these technological challenges, usually through industry-university-governmental collaborations. Market Uncertainty Flexible electronics is an emerging field characterized by a multiplicity of potential applications, manufacturing processes, and base materials, and the direction in which the industry or industries will evolve is not at all clear.
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, 19–20. Stephen Freilich, Director of Materials Science and Engineering for DuPont Central Research and Development, observes that "[f]
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