Can Earth's and Society's Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion People? Summary of a Workshop (2014) / Chapter Skim
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4 Challenges to the Earth System: Consequences for the Earth System
4 Challenges to the Earth System: Consequences for the Earth System
Pages 37-46
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From page 37... ...
BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN A WORLD OF 10 BILLION Stephen Polasky, Fesler-Lampert Professor of Ecological/Environmental Economics and Regent's Professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota Stephen Polasky noted that the previous sessions focused on population, whereas his session focused on the links between population, human actions, and ecosystems (including variables such as land use, water use, and land management) , as well as how those variables feed into human well-being.
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From page 38... ...
However, Polasky reasoned that, in today's world, attaining an eight-fold increase would be difficult and questioned if, while building up economic capital in the form of manufactured and human capital, humans are simultaneously eroding natural capital by not sufficiently considering environmental issues. He defined "natural capital" as the natural assets that provide ecosystem services, possibly multiple ecosystem services, such as a forest (natural capital)
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From page 39... ...
Polasky explained that ecosystem services are what economists might call "public goods"; in other words, it is difficult for private companies or landowners to receive payment or reward for the natural benefits of their land. As a result, he said, landowners have little incentive to maintain the natural capital of their land.
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He stated that although a full understanding of the system dynamics at play is not in hand, enough is known to improve on current performance and characterized the integration of decisions about natural capital into societal decision making as a good beginning. FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY PRESSURES ON WATER: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE AND OTHER SECTORS Siwa Msangi, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute Siwa Msangi began his presentation by stating that there is a pressing need for additional provisioning of food to preserve nutrition and well-being as the Earth's population expands.
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From page 41... ...
Investors in irrigation technologies tend to be in the regions less endowed with water, such as South Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Msangi then looked at irrigation water supply reliability under climate change predictions for 2050.
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In the most pessimistic scenario (low income growth and high population growth) , the price of maize increases the most, as food demand rises in this socioeconomic scenario.
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It is easy to adapt to but hard to mitigate challenges with climate change. The SSPs are then used in an integrated assessment model, which uses information about population, labor, technology, and policies to provide quantified projections about prices, carbon emissions, energy supply, land use, livestock, and other economic and ecosystem variables.
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From page 44... ...
The mitigation information needs to specify the order in which countries implement the mitigation strategies; in general, wealthier nations start first, though some nations (Russia, Middle East) never begin mitigation implementation.
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A participant brought up the topic of crop yield and productivity, asking about any easy ways to increase crop productivity, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Polasky responded that it is possible to increase food supply via intensification alone, but farmers have little incentive to do so.
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From page 46... ...
For instance, looking at climate change, it is possible that enough emissions have been introduced to the point of irreversible damage, but the time lag in the system is so great that the negative impact will be felt only by future generations.
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