Can Earth's and Society's Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion People? Summary of a Workshop (2014) / Chapter Skim
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5 Special Presentation: Extreme Events
5 Special Presentation: Extreme Events
Pages 47-52
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X-EVENTS AND HUMAN PROGRESS (OR, WHY THE TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND) John Casti, Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis John Casti noted a number of the previous presentations used a "trend-following" principle -- in other words, the presenter identified a trend and explored its ramifications for various periods of time.
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. These points are short time frame, so the probability of being in that position is virtually zero.
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In contrast, popular culture changes rapidly, so it would be important to measure collective beliefs on a time frame of weeks if interested in popular culture. Casti emphasized beliefs, not feelings.
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In the case of the seven negative trends, four incumbents or their party's candidate were ousted in a landslide, and all seven lost the election. In a second example, Casti examined the relationship between the social mood metric and health epidemics.
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Perhaps the wealthiest Americans dominate the public discourse and therefore create the social mood for the nation, the participant suggested. However, in other nations it would be impossible to gauge public mood via the stock market.
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