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1 Introduction
Pages 1-14

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From page 1...
... In sponsoring this project, the presidents hoped that other sponsors would step forward for subsequent, in-depth examination of topics surfaced at this introductory workshop. To develop the workshop, three groups within the National Academies -- the Board on Environmental Change and Society, Committee on Population, and Board on Life Sciences -- established a planning committee to identify workshop topics and agenda items, speakers, and invited guests.
From page 2...
... will plan and conduct a public workshop that will feature invited presentations and discussions directed at a careful empiri cal examination of the key issues in the science of sustainability that are related to overall human population size, population growth, aging populations, migration toward cities, and differential consumption, land use change, etc., by different subpopulations, as viewed through the lenses of both social and natural science. The committee will develop the agenda for the workshop, select and invite speakers and discussants, and moderate the discussions.
From page 3...
... RECURRING THEMES The following six theme areas were identified from the workshop and are described in more detail below: 1. Demographic variables that influence sustainability.
From page 4...
... Some of the key benefits of education discussed included the following: • Overall impact of education on society. Brian O'Neill stated that increased education results in a substantial improvement to the Human Development Index.
From page 5...
... Lutz discussed in detail that increased education for women and girls leads to significant decreases in fertility rates. Bongaarts stated that fertility rates dropped significantly in nations with a comprehensive, national family planning program that included widespread access and choice, pointing to Mexico and Iran as
From page 6...
... Bongaarts postulated in his presentation that fertility rates lower than 1.7 or so births per woman result in a demographic imbalance, with an aging population that puts stress on the economy and society; this imbalance is among the biggest challenges facing the United States and Europe in the next two to three decades. He suggested that solutions could include modify ing the pension system; encouraging a larger labor force, includ ing working later in life; encouraging increased childbearing; and encouraging increased immigration.
From page 7...
... ECONOMIC AND POLICY VARIABLES THAT INFLUENCE SUSTAINABILITY While the size of the human population exerts a strong and obvious influence on the Earth system, the workshop also addressed economic and policy variables that can have a strong impact on sustainability. As James Edmonds noted, it is not surprising that in a world with 10 billion people, what will matter is how much they are doing, how they are doing it, and what policies there are for regulating what they do.
From page 8...
... In general, they noted, as countries move toward increased affluence, they also increase their intake of refined, rather than whole grains, as well as of larger livestock. During a discussion session, Siwa Msangi said that there is still little understanding of the impact of livestock, particularly with respect to livestock intensively fed with grains.
From page 9...
... On the other hand, increased technology use can lead to increased energy consumption. Both Polasky and Msangi discussed technological improvements and their influence on productivity increases in crop production and more efficient water usage, although that trend is not likely to continue domestically.
From page 10...
... Some metrics that were discussed included the following: • Overall human well-being. A participant pointed out that the com munity tends to use increasing gross domestic product (GDP)
From page 11...
... , the workshop was originally asked to address the concept of carrying capacity as a possible framework within which to consider the burgeoning human population of the Earth. Carrying capacity, a concept originated in animal ecology, refers to the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, to which it is able to provide an appropriate supply of food, water, habitat, and other natural resources.
From page 12...
... STRUCTURING A RESEARCH AGENDA The workshop discussion sessions focused in part on identifying elements of a research agenda for sustainability science moving forward. Specific research topics are addressed in the themes above.
From page 13...
... • Try to understand the determinants of risk, looking across dif ferent socioeconomic and demographic variables and spatial distributions. • Consider not just the science, but also the policy, including ideas for implementation.


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